Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Malik WillisPassing9/17, 85 YDS
- Ollie Gordon IIRushing9 CAR, 100 YDS, 1 TD
- Malik WashingtonReceiving5 REC, 67 YDS
Vikings- Kyler MurrayPassing27/37, 247 YDS
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing20 CAR, 94 YDS
- T.J. HockensonReceiving13 REC, 119 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q46:41Will Reichard 29 Yd Field Goal10–15
- Q30:11Ollie Gordon II 12 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)10–12
- Q36:35Will Reichard 41 Yd Field Goal3–12
- Q311:56Riley Patterson 27 Yd Field Goal3–9
- Q20:00Will Reichard 33 Yd Field Goal0–9
- Q27:08Will Reichard 50 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q17:54Will Reichard 47 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:54Will Reichard 47 Yd Field GoalMIA 0 – 3 MIN · MIN 80% → 85% +5MIN 80% → 85%+5 pts
- Q27:08Will Reichard 50 Yd Field GoalMIA 0 – 6 MIN · MIN 83% → 88% +5MIN 83% → 88%+5 pts
- Q36:35Will Reichard 41 Yd Field GoalMIA 3 – 12 MIN · MIN 88% → 93% +5MIN 88% → 93%+5 pts
- Q30:11Ollie Gordon II 12 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)MIA 10 – 12 MIN · MIA 6% → 24% +18MIA 6% → 24%+18 pts
- Q46:41Will Reichard 29 Yd Field GoalMIA 10 – 15 MIN · MIN 75% → 89% +14MIN 75% → 89%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Vikings 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -10
- ML MIA +400 / MIN -535
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -14
- MIN 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 88.4%, market 80.8%
- Fair odds
- MIN -441
- MIA +441 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 14.3 – 24.3 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 38.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1396 | 1647 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −23 | +44 | MIA: Malik Willis, usually Tua Tagovailoa · MIN: Kyler Murray, usually J.J. McCarthy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +353 Elo | MIN 88.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 84.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 87.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 81.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3212.0 | Points scored | 23.715th of 32 |
| 29th of 3228.7 | Points allowed | 13.72nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−16.7 | Margin | +10.06th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.04 | Yards per play | 4.2832nd of 32 |
| 29th of 326.10 | Yards allowed per play | 4.774th of 32 |
| 21st of 310–2 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
| 6th of 321537 | Opponent Elo | 149117th of 32 |
| 29th of 321396 | Elo rating | 16472nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  MIA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–9 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.