New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
MIA went from 21% to 27% over 13 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 24 at 5:30 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Drake MayePassing16/20, 199 YDS, 2 TD
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing19 CAR, 82 YDS
- DeMario DouglasReceiving3 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
Dolphins- Malik WillisPassing21/32, 211 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Ollie Gordon IIRushing19 CAR, 69 YDS
- Kevin Coleman Jr.Receiving3 REC, 46 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:04Kevin Coleman Jr. 35 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–19
- Q412:39DeMario Douglas 48 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)24–13
- Q30:59Drake Maye 2 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)17–13
- Q39:23Kyle Williams 43 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)10–13
- Q20:08Malik Washington 1 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Zane Gonzalez Kick)3–13
- Q29:27Zane Gonzalez 52 Yd Field Goal3–6
- Q13:39Zane Gonzalez 31 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q19:10Andy Borregales 34 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:27Zane Gonzalez 52 Yd Field GoalNE 3 – 6 MIA · MIA 31% → 40% +9MIA 31% → 40%+9 pts
- Q20:08Malik Washington 1 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Zane Gonzalez Kick)NE 3 – 13 MIA · MIA 44% → 68% +24MIA 44% → 68%+24 pts
- Q39:23Kyle Williams 43 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 10 – 13 MIA · NE 27% → 54% +26NE 27% → 54%+26 pts
- Q30:59Drake Maye 2 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 17 – 13 MIA · NE 48% → 79% +31NE 48% → 79%+31 pts
- Q412:39DeMario Douglas 48 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 24 – 13 MIA · NE 80% → 96% +17NE 80% → 96%+17 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Patriots 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- NE -7
- ML NE -310 / MIA +250
- Pre-line forecast
- NE 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NE -7.5
- NE 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- NE: Elo 75.1%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- NE -267
- MIA +267 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 25.3 – 18.3 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1597 | 1397 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +14 | −14 | NE: Drake Maye · MIA: Malik Willis, usually Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | NE +192 Elo | NE 75.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 72.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 74.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NE 72.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3222.9 | Points scored | 16.331st of 32 |
| 9th of 3220.4 | Points allowed | 26.225th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+2.4 | Margin | −9.831st of 32 |
| 4th of 326.01 | Yards per play | 5.2120th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.36 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7426th of 32 |
| 26th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 0–227th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321556 | Opponent Elo | 15148th of 32 |
| 8th of 321597 | Elo rating | 139724th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NE |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–3–1 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–3–1 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | — |
| Underdog | 1–2–1 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NE 2–4 MIA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.