Miami Dolphins at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
NYJ went from 66% to 66% over 3 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 24 at 4:25 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Malik WillisPassing14/21, 208 YDS, 2 TD
- Ollie Gordon IIRushing25 CAR, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- Greg DulcichReceiving5 REC, 86 YDS
Jets- Geno SmithPassing23/30, 287 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Braelon AllenRushing17 CAR, 104 YDS
- Omar Cooper Jr.Receiving5 REC, 115 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:24Mason Taylor 12 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Geno Smith Pass to Mason Taylor for Two-Point Conversion)28–25
- Q44:44Caleb Douglas 63 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Zane Gonzalez Kick)28–17
- Q48:57Jason Sanders 33 Yd Field Goal21–17
- Q35:50Omar Cooper Jr. 3 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Sanders Kick)21–14
- Q20:06Malik Willis 2 Yd Rush (Zane Gonzalez Kick)21–7
- Q11:02Ollie Gordon II 1 Yd Run (Zane Gonzalez Kick)14–7
- Q18:37Mason Taylor 13 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Sanders Kick)7–7
- Q110:53Caleb Douglas 7 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Zane Gonzalez Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:02Ollie Gordon II 1 Yd Run (Zane Gonzalez Kick)MIA 14 – 7 NYJ · MIA 36% → 56% +20MIA 36% → 56%+20 pts
- Q20:06Malik Willis 2 Yd Rush (Zane Gonzalez Kick)MIA 21 – 7 NYJ · MIA 63% → 83% +20MIA 63% → 83%+20 pts
- Q35:50Omar Cooper Jr. 3 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Sanders Kick)MIA 21 – 14 NYJ · NYJ 11% → 31% +20NYJ 11% → 31%+20 pts
- Q44:44Caleb Douglas 63 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Zane Gonzalez Kick)MIA 28 – 17 NYJ · MIA 78% → >99% +21MIA 78% → >99%+21 pts
- Q43:24Mason Taylor 12 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Geno Smith Pass to Mason Taylor for Two-Point Conversion)MIA 28 – 25 NYJ · NYJ <1% → 24% +24NYJ <1% → 24%+24 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Jets 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- NYJ -4.5
- ML MIA +185 / NYJ -225
- Pre-line forecast
- NYJ 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYJ -3.5
- NYJ 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- NYJ: Elo 61.7%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- NYJ -194
- MIA +194 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 17.5 – 22.0 NYJ
- Posted spread, posted total 39.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1375 | 1364 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −24 | +34 | MIA: Malik Willis, usually Tua Tagovailoa · NYJ: Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | NYJ +83 Elo | NYJ 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYJ 67.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYJ 63.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYJ 66.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3214.0 | Points scored | 18.727th of 32 |
| 24th of 3226.4 | Points allowed | 20.36th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−12.4 | Margin | −1.720th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.11 | Yards per play | 4.9322nd of 32 |
| 21st of 325.50 | Yards allowed per play | 4.805th of 32 |
| 29th of 320–3 | Road vs home | 1–116th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321565 | Opponent Elo | 150711th of 32 |
| 30th of 321375 | Elo rating | 136431st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–3 | 4–1–1 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 4–1–1 |
| Favorite | — | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 3–1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–1 NYJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.