Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing23/32, 190 YDS, 4 TD
- Samaje PerineRushing14 CAR, 68 YDS
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving6 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
Dolphins- Malik WillisPassing15/27, 137 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Ollie Gordon IIRushing18 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- Malik WashingtonReceiving6 REC, 43 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:45Malik Willis 1 Yd Run (Riley Patterson PAT failed)31–24
- Q42:09Evan McPherson 26 Yd Field Goal31–18
- Q47:13Kevin Coleman Jr. 3 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Malik Willis Pass to Greg Dulcich for Two-Point Conversion)28–18
- Q30:39Ja'Marr Chase 45 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)28–10
- Q35:13Riley Patterson 29 Yd Field Goal21–10
- Q20:55Tanner Hudson 2 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)21–7
- Q211:51Samaje Perine 6 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)14–7
- Q18:02Ollie Gordon II 1 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)7–7
- Q114:03Mike Gesicki 4 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q114:03Mike Gesicki 4 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 7 – 0 MIA · CIN 75% → 87% +12CIN 75% → 87%+12 pts
- Q18:02Ollie Gordon II 1 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)CIN 7 – 7 MIA · MIA 13% → 26% +13MIA 13% → 26%+13 pts
- Q211:51Samaje Perine 6 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 14 – 7 MIA · CIN 71% → 86% +15CIN 71% → 86%+15 pts
- Q20:55Tanner Hudson 2 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 21 – 7 MIA · CIN 86% → 96% +9CIN 86% → 96%+9 pts
- Q30:39Ja'Marr Chase 45 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 28 – 10 MIA · CIN 96% → >99% +4CIN 96% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bengals 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- CIN -7.5
- ML CIN -375 / MIA +295
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -4.5
- CIN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 66.2%, market 75.7%
- Fair odds
- CIN -301
- MIA +301 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 26.5 – 19.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1391 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +25 | −22 | CIN: Joe Burrow · MIA: Malik Willis, usually Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +117 Elo | CIN 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 74.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 68.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 75.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 3224.3 | Points scored | 11.532nd of 32 |
| 13th of 3221.3 | Points allowed | 25.321st of 32 |
| 10th of 32+3.0 | Margin | −13.832nd of 32 |
| 13th of 325.65 | Yards per play | 5.1019th of 32 |
| 25th of 325.72 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6623rd of 32 |
| 9th of 311–1 | Road vs home | 0–123rd of 32 |
| 9th of 321518 | Opponent Elo | 15713rd of 32 |
| 14th of 321497 | Elo rating | 139129th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  CIN |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–9 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 1–0 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.