Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
NE went from 59% to 63% over 14 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 31 at 5:51 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Sun, Nov 8, 3:22 PM ESTMarShawn Lloyd out · forecast NE 63%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing23/29, 372 YDS, 3 TD
- Kaleb JohnsonRushing14 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- Christian WatsonReceiving7 REC, 171 YDS, 1 TD
Patriots- Drake MayePassing21/38, 299 YDS, 3 TD, 3 INT
- Corey KinerRushing8 CAR, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- DeMario DouglasReceiving5 REC, 102 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:54Corey Kiner 4 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)45–27
- Q411:51Trey Smack 38 Yd Field Goal45–21
- Q31:11Mack Hollins 22 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)42–21
- Q34:10Christian Watson 39 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Jordan Love Run for Two-Point Conversion)42–14
- Q35:13Trey Smack 51 Yd Field Goal34–14
- Q310:51Savion Williams 10 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)31–14
- Q22:37Efton Chism III 8 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)24–14
- Q24:45Kaleb Johnson 2 Yd Rush (Trey Smack Kick)24–7
- Q29:23Rhamondre Stevenson 30 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)17–7
- Q213:37Trey Smack 41 Yd Field Goal17–0
- Q17:59Matthew Golden 5 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)14–0
- Q113:19Jordan Love 13 Yd Rush (Trey Smack Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q113:19Jordan Love 13 Yd Rush (Trey Smack Kick)GB 7 – 0 NE · GB 37% → 55% +18GB 37% → 55%+18 pts
- Q17:59Matthew Golden 5 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)GB 14 – 0 NE · GB 56% → 74% +17GB 56% → 74%+17 pts
- Q29:23Rhamondre Stevenson 30 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)GB 17 – 7 NE · NE 15% → 30% +16NE 15% → 30%+16 pts
- Q24:45Kaleb Johnson 2 Yd Rush (Trey Smack Kick)GB 24 – 7 NE · GB 72% → 88% +16GB 72% → 88%+16 pts
- Q22:37Efton Chism III 8 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)GB 24 – 14 NE · NE 11% → 27% +16NE 11% → 27%+16 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Patriots 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- NE -3
- ML GB +154 / NE -185
- Pre-line forecast
- NE 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NE -5.5
- NE 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.5 pts
- NE: Elo 68.7%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- NE -168
- GB +168 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 20.8 – 23.8 NE
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1607 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +12 | +14 | GB: Jordan Love · NE: Drake Maye (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Injuries | −15 | — | Key absences: MarShawn Lloyd |
| Elo ratings | NE +137 Elo | NE 68.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 68.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NE 62.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3221.4 | Points scored | 23.015th of 32 |
| 11th of 3220.5 | Points allowed | 20.310th of 32 |
| 18th of 32+0.9 | Margin | +2.813th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.35 | Yards per play | 5.925th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.72 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2514th of 32 |
| 15th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
| 15th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15335th of 32 |
| 15th of 321523 | Elo rating | 16078th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GB |  NE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–3–1 | 3–4–1 |
| Last 10 | 4–3–1 | 3–4–1 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 1–1–1 | 1–2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–6 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.