Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing34/54, 258 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Javonte WilliamsRushing11 CAR, 41 YDS, 1 TD
- George PickensReceiving6 REC, 73 YDS
Packers- Jordan LovePassing23/41, 276 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Pierre Strong Jr.Rushing11 CAR, 28 YDS
- Matthew GoldenReceiving6 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:44Ryan Flournoy 6 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–23
- Q410:06Trey Smack 29 Yd Field Goal7–23
- Q35:02Trey Smack 44 Yd Field Goal7–20
- Q39:19Javonte Williams 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)7–17
- Q20:23Jordan Love 1 Yd Rush (Trey Smack Kick)0–17
- Q25:58Trey Smack 25 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q14:43Matthew Golden 9 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:43Matthew Golden 9 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)DAL 0 – 7 GB · GB 52% → 70% +18GB 52% → 70%+18 pts
- Q25:58Trey Smack 25 Yd Field GoalDAL 0 – 10 GB · GB 73% → 80% +7GB 73% → 80%+7 pts
- Q20:23Jordan Love 1 Yd Rush (Trey Smack Kick)DAL 0 – 17 GB · GB 82% → 94% +12GB 82% → 94%+12 pts
- Q39:19Javonte Williams 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 7 – 17 GB · DAL 4% → 15% +11DAL 4% → 15%+11 pts
- Q35:02Trey Smack 44 Yd Field GoalDAL 7 – 20 GB · GB 87% → 93% +6GB 87% → 93%+6 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Packers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- GB -1.5
- ML DAL -105 / GB -115
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -5
- GB 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +15.6 pts
- GB: Elo 66.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- GB -110
- DAL +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 26.0 – 27.5 GB
- Posted spread, posted total 53.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Elo ratings | GB +120 Elo | GB 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 66.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 52.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3227.6 | Points scored | 20.824th of 32 |
| 26th of 3227.2 | Points allowed | 22.415th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −1.619th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.76 | Yards per play | 5.6413th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326.38 | Yards allowed per play | 4.704th of 32 |
| 13th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 32 |
| 25th of 321479 | Opponent Elo | 150117th of 32 |
| 25th of 321404 | Elo rating | 150316th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  GB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–2–1 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–2–1 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 1–0–1 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–1 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–1 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 0–1 GB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 1.