Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Jalon DanielsPassing19/25, 189 YDS, 1 TD
- Bucky IrvingRushing21 CAR, 165 YDS, 1 TD
- Tez JohnsonReceiving1 REC, 64 YDS
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing24/42, 316 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Javonte WilliamsRushing12 CAR, 45 YDS, 1 TD
- George PickensReceiving9 REC, 130 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q45:26George Pickens 18 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–16
- Q32:58Chase McLaughlin 41 Yd Field Goal24–10
- Q37:31Bucky Irving 1 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)21–10
- Q314:00Emeka Egbuka 14 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)14–10
- Q20:21Brandon Aubrey 41 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q214:53Bucky Irving 5 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Chase McLaughlin Kick)7–7
- Q110:51Javonte Williams 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:51Javonte Williams 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)TB 0 – 7 DAL · DAL 79% → 90% +10DAL 79% → 90%+10 pts
- Q214:53Bucky Irving 5 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 7 – 7 DAL · TB 11% → 23% +12TB 11% → 23%+12 pts
- Q314:00Emeka Egbuka 14 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 14 – 10 DAL · TB 19% → 41% +21TB 19% → 41%+21 pts
- Q37:31Bucky Irving 1 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 21 – 10 DAL · TB 46% → 73% +27TB 46% → 73%+27 pts
- Q32:58Chase McLaughlin 41 Yd Field GoalTB 24 – 10 DAL · TB 79% → 87% +9TB 79% → 87%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cowboys 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -8.5
- ML TB +380 / DAL -500
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -11.5
- DAL 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- DAL: Elo 83.6%, market 80.0%
- Fair odds
- DAL -407
- TB +407 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 20.5 – 29.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 49.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1397 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −166 | +21 | TB: Jalon Daniels, usually Baker Mayfield · DAL: Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +283 Elo | DAL 83.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 76.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 82.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 80.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3219.0 | Points scored | 30.52nd of 32 |
| 19th of 3224.0 | Points allowed | 28.028th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−5.0 | Margin | +2.512th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.66 | Yards per play | 5.5613th of 32 |
| 6th of 324.96 | Yards allowed per play | 6.3632nd of 32 |
| 21st of 310–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
| 10th of 321520 | Opponent Elo | 148020th of 32 |
| 28th of 321397 | Elo rating | 145723rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  TB |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–12 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 13–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 0–1 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.