Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
GB went from 60% to 63% over 9 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 24 at 4:25 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing23/41, 209 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Chuba HubbardRushing22 CAR, 81 YDS, 1 TD
- Tetairoa McMillanReceiving6 REC, 58 YDS
Packers- Jordan LovePassing30/41, 288 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Josh JacobsRushing21 CAR, 39 YDS, 1 TD
- Christian WatsonReceiving8 REC, 113 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:37Jalen Coker 26 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–27
- Q34:07Ryan Fitzgerald 50 Yd Field Goal13–27
- Q37:30Josh Jacobs 4 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)10–27
- Q21:46Matthew Golden 24 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)10–20
- Q26:33Josh Jacobs 1 Yd Rush (Trey Smack Kick)10–13
- Q214:57Chuba Hubbard 1 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)10–6
- Q15:08Tucker Kraft 12 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack PAT Failed)3–6
- Q111:43Ryan Fitzgerald 39 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:08Tucker Kraft 12 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack PAT Failed)CAR 3 – 6 GB · GB 54% → 70% +16GB 54% → 70%+16 pts
- Q214:57Chuba Hubbard 1 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)CAR 10 – 6 GB · CAR 30% → 50% +19CAR 30% → 50%+19 pts
- Q26:33Josh Jacobs 1 Yd Rush (Trey Smack Kick)CAR 10 – 13 GB · GB 48% → 69% +22GB 48% → 69%+22 pts
- Q21:46Matthew Golden 24 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)CAR 10 – 20 GB · GB 69% → 87% +17GB 69% → 87%+17 pts
- Q37:30Josh Jacobs 4 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)CAR 10 – 27 GB · GB 89% → 97% +8GB 89% → 97%+8 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Packers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- GB -3.5
- ML CAR +160 / GB -192
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -5
- GB 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- GB: Elo 66.6%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- GB -173
- CAR +173 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 22.0 – 25.5 GB
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | +12 | CAR: Bryce Young · GB: Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | GB +120 Elo | GB 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 64.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 63.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3226.5 | Points scored | 20.624th of 32 |
| 27th of 3227.7 | Points allowed | 20.711th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−1.2 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.78 | Yards per play | 5.3616th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.38 | Yards allowed per play | 4.874th of 32 |
| 4th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 2–114th of 32 |
| 13th of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 151211th of 32 |
| 21st of 321429 | Elo rating | 150615th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  GB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–3 | 3–3–1 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 3–3–1 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 1–1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 1–1 GB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.