Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing7/11, 64 YDS, 1 TD
- Bucky IrvingRushing24 CAR, 106 YDS, 2 TD
- Tez JohnsonReceiving2 REC, 33 YDS, 1 TD
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing14/27, 163 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Chuba HubbardRushing7 CAR, 33 YDS
- Darren WallerReceiving1 REC, 50 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q45:28Anthony Tyus III 12 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick) (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)43–13
- Q410:21Sean Tucker 46 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)43–6
- Q36:30Chase McLaughlin 44 Yd Field Goal36–6
- Q20:04Tez Johnson 14 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)33–6
- Q23:53Bucky Irving 1 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)26–6
- Q29:09Zyon McCollum Defensive PAT Conversion19–6
- Q29:09Darren Waller 50 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald PAT blocked)17–6
- Q211:05Calijah Kancey 32 Yd Fumble Return (Chase McLaughlin Kick)17–0
- Q214:12Chase McLaughlin 22 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q17:22Bucky Irving 4 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:22Bucky Irving 4 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 7 – 0 CAR · TB 41% → 60% +19TB 41% → 60%+19 pts
- Q214:12Chase McLaughlin 22 Yd Field GoalTB 10 – 0 CAR · TB 62% → 70% +8TB 62% → 70%+8 pts
- Q211:05Calijah Kancey 32 Yd Fumble Return (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 17 – 0 CAR · TB 72% → 86% +15TB 72% → 86%+15 pts
- Q29:09Darren Waller 50 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald PAT blocked)TB 17 – 6 CAR · CAR 13% → 25% +12CAR 13% → 25%+12 pts
- Q23:53Bucky Irving 1 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 26 – 6 CAR · TB 82% → 93% +11TB 82% → 93%+11 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Panthers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- CAR -3
- ML TB +130 / CAR -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR -5.5
- CAR 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.3 pts
- CAR: Elo 68.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -145
- TB +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 20.8 – 23.8 CAR
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −36 | +6 | TB: Baker Mayfield (65%) or Jalon Daniels (35%) · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Injuries | −15 | — | Key absences: Emeka Egbuka |
| Elo ratings | CAR +136 Elo | CAR 68.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 64.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 59.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3219.8 | Points scored | 29.24th of 32 |
| 17th of 3223.0 | Points allowed | 24.621st of 32 |
| 24th of 32−3.2 | Margin | +4.66th of 32 |
| 25th of 324.66 | Yards per play | 5.917th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.01 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3818th of 32 |
| 13th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–116th of 32 |
| 10th of 321515 | Opponent Elo | 150316th of 32 |
| 21st of 321438 | Elo rating | 148017th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–5 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 1–5 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 5–1 CAR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.