Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing20/39, 281 YDS, 2 TD
- Chuba HubbardRushing28 CAR, 120 YDS, 1 TD
- Jalen CokerReceiving6 REC, 97 YDS
Eagles- Tanner McKeePassing26/45, 215 YDS, 1 TD
- Dameon PierceRushing12 CAR, 35 YDS, 1 TD
- DeVonta SmithReceiving7 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q46:33Tommy Tremble 19 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald PAT failed)25–14
- Q410:42DeVonta Smith 19 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Jake Elliott Kick)19–14
- Q413:34Chuba Hubbard 1 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–7
- Q311:32Ryan Fitzgerald 52 Yd Field Goal13–7
- Q22:42Dameon Pierce 2 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)10–7
- Q28:08Tommy Tremble 12 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)10–0
- Q110:50Ryan Fitzgerald 47 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:08Tommy Tremble 12 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)CAR 10 – 0 PHI · CAR 67% → 84% +17CAR 67% → 84%+17 pts
- Q22:42Dameon Pierce 2 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)CAR 10 – 7 PHI · PHI 15% → 33% +18PHI 15% → 33%+18 pts
- Q413:34Chuba Hubbard 1 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)CAR 19 – 7 PHI · CAR 82% → 96% +14CAR 82% → 96%+14 pts
- Q410:42DeVonta Smith 19 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Jake Elliott Kick)CAR 19 – 14 PHI · PHI 3% → 20% +17PHI 3% → 20%+17 pts
- Q46:33Tommy Tremble 19 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald PAT failed)CAR 25 – 14 PHI · CAR 85% → 99% +14CAR 85% → 99%+14 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Panthers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- CAR -3
- ML CAR -166 / PHI +140
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR -1
- CAR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- CAR: Elo 53.3%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- CAR -147
- PHI +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 21.3 – 18.3 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 39.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Injuries | — | −90 | Key absences: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley |
| Elo ratings | CAR +23 Elo | CAR 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 53.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 59.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3230.3 | Points scored | 18.429th of 32 |
| 26th of 3227.3 | Points allowed | 22.414th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+3.0 | Margin | −4.026th of 32 |
| 5th of 326.06 | Yards per play | 4.5429th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.78 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3717th of 32 |
| 10th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 32 |
| 13th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 148623rd of 32 |
| 20th of 321457 | Elo rating | 147917th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  CAR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–7 | 10–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 8–8 |
| Underdog | 11–5 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–10 | 7–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 0–1 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.