Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Aaron RodgersPassing33/49, 253 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Jaylen WarrenRushing14 CAR, 50 YDS
- DK MetcalfReceiving11 REC, 93 YDS
Buccaneers- Jalon DanielsPassing22/43, 164 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Bucky IrvingRushing19 CAR, 46 YDS
- Emeka EgbukaReceiving7 REC, 48 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- OT3:15Germie Bernard 6 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)26–19
- Q40:08Chase McLaughlin 53 Yd Field Goal19–19
- Q41:21Chris Boswell 20 Yd Field Goal19–16
- Q41:55Chris Boswell 58 Yd Field Goal16–16
- Q48:08Chris Boswell 39 Yd Field Goal13–16
- Q413:48Darnell Washington 5 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)10–16
- Q35:02Chase McLaughlin 33 Yd Field Goal3–16
- Q20:00Chris Boswell 52 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q24:08Chase McLaughlin 47 Yd Field Goal0–13
- Q214:52Emeka Egbuka 2 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Chase McLaughlin Kick)0–10
- Q17:51Chase McLaughlin 43 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:52Emeka Egbuka 2 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Chase McLaughlin Kick)PIT 0 – 10 TB · TB 52% → 71% +19TB 52% → 71%+19 pts
- Q41:55Chris Boswell 58 Yd Field GoalPIT 16 – 16 TB · PIT 15% → 51% +36PIT 15% → 51%+36 pts
- Q41:21Chris Boswell 20 Yd Field GoalPIT 19 – 16 TB · PIT 51% → 90% +39PIT 51% → 90%+39 pts
- Q40:08Chase McLaughlin 53 Yd Field GoalPIT 19 – 19 TB · TB <1% → 50% +50TB <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT3:15Germie Bernard 6 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 26 – 19 TB · PIT 52% → 97% +46PIT 52% → 97%+46 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Steelers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- PIT -2.5
- ML PIT -148 / TB +124
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -4
- PIT 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 64.0%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -137
- TB +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 20.5 – 18.0 TB
- Posted spread, posted total 38.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Injuries | — | −34 | Key absences: Baker Mayfield |
| Elo ratings | PIT +100 Elo | PIT 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 64.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 57.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 3222.2 | Points scored | 20.025th of 32 |
| 11th of 3221.8 | Points allowed | 22.414th of 32 |
| 16th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −2.423rd of 32 |
| 16th of 325.27 | Yards per play | 5.0421st of 32 |
| 18th of 325.46 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2916th of 32 |
| 27th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 0–325th of 32 |
| 18th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 150514th of 32 |
| 14th of 321518 | Elo rating | 145021st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.