Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Daniel JonesPassing24/44, 267 YDS
- Jonathan TaylorRushing15 CAR, 45 YDS
- Tyler WarrenReceiving7 REC, 83 YDS
Steelers- Aaron RodgersPassing22/31, 235 YDS, 3 TD
- Jaylen WarrenRushing15 CAR, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaylen WarrenReceiving6 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:43Chris Boswell 54 Yd Field Goal22–34
- Q46:35Pat Freiermuth 17 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)22–31
- Q411:42Spencer Shrader 28 Yd Field Goal22–24
- Q32:13Spencer Shrader 40 Yd Field Goal19–24
- Q37:06Jaylen Warren 50 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)16–24
- Q310:23Spencer Shrader 22 Yd Field Goal16–17
- Q20:21Chris Boswell 48 Yd Field Goal13–17
- Q27:43Tyler Warren 1 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)13–14
- Q213:17Pat Freiermuth 1 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)6–14
- Q16:55Spencer Shrader 56 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q18:45Jaylen Warren 80 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)3–7
- Q18:57Spencer Shrader 57 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:45Jaylen Warren 80 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)IND 3 – 7 PIT · PIT 51% → 69% +18PIT 51% → 69%+18 pts
- Q213:17Pat Freiermuth 1 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)IND 6 – 14 PIT · PIT 61% → 78% +18PIT 61% → 78%+18 pts
- Q27:43Tyler Warren 1 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)IND 13 – 14 PIT · IND 21% → 40% +19IND 21% → 40%+19 pts
- Q37:06Jaylen Warren 50 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)IND 16 – 24 PIT · PIT 60% → 83% +24PIT 60% → 83%+24 pts
- Q46:35Pat Freiermuth 17 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)IND 22 – 31 PIT · PIT 68% → 96% +29PIT 68% → 96%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Steelers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- PIT -3
- ML IND +136 / PIT -162
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -1.5
- PIT 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- PIT: Elo 55.9%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -144
- IND +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 19.8 – 22.8 PIT
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +21 | +11 | IND: Daniel Jones · PIT: Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +41 Elo | PIT 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 59.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 3225.5 | Points scored | 19.324th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3226.0 | Points allowed | 21.814th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −2.520th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.49 | Yards per play | 5.0024th of 32 |
| 31st of 326.18 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6522nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 310–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 13th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 151610th of 32 |
| 18th of 321476 | Elo rating | 149116th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  IND |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–7 | 9–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 2–1 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.