Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing27/45, 274 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Josh JacobsRushing11 CAR, 36 YDS
- Christian WatsonReceiving5 REC, 57 YDS
Lions- Jared GoffPassing22/32, 303 YDS, 2 TD
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing29 CAR, 116 YDS
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving9 REC, 153 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Jake Bates 22 Yd Field Goal17–20
- Q47:10Trey Smack 43 Yd Field Goal17–17
- Q36:33Jameson Williams 10 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)14–17
- Q312:14Josh Jacobs 25 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)14–10
- Q212:36Jake Bates 40 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q10:58Tucker Kraft 14 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)7–7
- Q17:00Jameson Williams 16 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:58Tucker Kraft 14 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)GB 7 – 7 DET · GB 23% → 40% +18GB 23% → 40%+18 pts
- Q312:14Josh Jacobs 25 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)GB 14 – 10 DET · GB 32% → 57% +25GB 32% → 57%+25 pts
- Q36:33Jameson Williams 10 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)GB 14 – 17 DET · DET 40% → 69% +28DET 40% → 69%+28 pts
- Q47:10Trey Smack 43 Yd Field GoalGB 17 – 17 DET · GB 26% → 46% +20GB 26% → 46%+20 pts
- Q40:00Jake Bates 22 Yd Field GoalGB 17 – 20 DET · DET 55% → 100% +45DET 55% → 100%+45 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Lions 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- DET -3
- ML GB +150 / DET -180
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1.5
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- DET: Elo 56.0%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -158
- GB +158 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 25.3 – 28.3 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 53.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +14 | — | GB: Jordan Love · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | DET +42 Elo | DET 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 67.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 59.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 61.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 3221.2 | Points scored | 32.82nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3220.8 | Points allowed | 29.631st of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +3.29th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.43 | Yards per play | 5.936th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.64 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6323rd of 32 |
| 5th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 16th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 144429th of 32 |
| 15th of 321521 | Elo rating | 154114th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GB |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–3 | 1–3–1 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 1–3–1 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 1–2–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 5–0 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 5–0 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GB 3–3 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.