New England Patriots at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the Lions favored by 2.5, and the forecast follows it (Lions 58%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings land in about the same place, at 56%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Lions rate higher (1598 to 1555 Elo).
- Likely out: Rhamondre Stevenson (NE).
- It's moved toward the Lions since we first logged it, from 48% to 58%.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Patriots
Now 53%
67%
with a win
42%
with a loss
This game is worth 25 points of playoff chance to them.
Lions
Now 77%
84%
with a win
67%
with a loss
This game is worth 17 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
DET went from 48% to 58% over 10 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, November 7 at 9:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Sun, Nov 8, 7:49 PM ESTRhamondre Stevenson out · forecast DET 53%
Sun, Nov 8, 8:54 PM ESTRhamondre Stevenson back · forecast DET 55%
Tue, Nov 10, 10:24 PM ESTRhamondre Stevenson out · forecast DET 58%
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Lions 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- DET -2.5
- ML NE +130 / DET -155
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1.5
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- DET: Elo 56.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -139
- NE +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- NE 24.5 – 27.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 51.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1598 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | +13 | — | NE: Drake Maye · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Injuries | −12 | — | Key absences: Rhamondre Stevenson |
| Elo ratings | DET +43 Elo | DET 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 3223.4 | Points scored | 27.85th of 32 |
| 15th of 3223.0 | Points allowed | 23.617th of 32 |
| 18th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +4.19th of 32 |
| 5th of 325.97 | Yards per play | 5.817th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.52 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4221st of 32 |
| 4th of 321542 | Opponent Elo | 147426th of 32 |
| 14th of 321555 | Elo rating | 15989th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.6 | Offense, adjusted | +3.82nd of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.9 | Defense, adjusted | −0.619th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from each player's share of his team's targets, carries and passes, next to DraftKings lines. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 17,384 graded NFL lines (log loss 0.689 vs our model's 0.721). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −1.9% a bet over 4,421 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared GoffDET | QB · 35 attempts | 250.7 | 266.4 | 267.5 | 6/10 games over this line | 49%* | 38% | |
| Drake MayeNE | QB · 31 attempts | 237.4 | 285.6 | 259.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 49%* | 36% |
* DraftKings lists these lines in ESPN's feed without prices, so each is read as the book's 50/50 point, the chance leans only slightly toward our model, and a parlay can't show what the book would pay for them.
What if…
Pick something that might happen in this game and see how every other line's chance moves if it does.
- Isaac TeSlaa (DET) over 17.5 receiving yards49%60%
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) over 77.5 receiving yards49%60%
- Sam LaPorta (DET) over 44.5 receiving yards49%60%
- Jameson Williams (DET) over 54.5 receiving yards49%60%
- Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) over 30.5 receiving yards49%60%
- Jameson Williams (DET) over 3.5 receptions49%58%
- Isaac TeSlaa (DET) over 1.5 receptions49%57%
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) over 7.5 receptions49%57%
- Sam LaPorta (DET) over 4.5 receptions49%57%
- Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) over 4.5 receptions48%56%
His other lines (6)
- Jared Goff (DET) over 270.5 passing + rushing yards49%90%
- Jared Goff (DET) over 22.5 completions50%76%
- Jared Goff (DET) over 34.5 pass attempts50%71%
- Jared Goff (DET) over 1.5 passing touchdowns49%65%
- Jared Goff (DET) over 0.5 interceptions thrown49%47%
- Jared Goff (DET) over 0.5 rushing yards51%50%
What each chance becomes if it happens, from how players' stats and results moved together in 467 past games, the same numbers behind same-game parlays (tested on games the fit never saw). It says how things are linked, not that any of it will happen.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Patriots
25 listedRhamondre Stevenson RB
−12 EloDoubtfulTeam rushing leader (102 CAR, 399 YDS, 2 TD)
doubtful
Lan Larison RB
ActiveLarison recorded a four-yard rush and failed to haul in his lone target during the Patriots' 45-27 loss to the Packers on Sunday. He also recorded two tackles (one solo) on special teams.
Kyle Williams WR
ActiveWilliams failed to catch either of his two targets in Sunday's 45-27 loss to the Packers.
Eli Raridon TE
ActiveRaridon caught three passes for 52 yards on six targets in Sunday's 45-27 loss to the Packers.
Charles Woods CB
Questionablequestionable
TreVeyon Henderson RB
Questionablequestionable
A.J. Brown WR
Questionablequestionable
Andy Borregales PK
ActiveBorregales made all three of his PATs in Sunday's 45-27 loss to the Packers.
Ben Brown C
Doubtfuldoubtful
Behren Morton QB
ActiveDametrious Crownover OT
ActiveCorey Kiner RB
ActiveKiner rushed eight times for 55 yards and a touchdown and returned nine kickoffs for 224 yards in the Patriots' 45-27 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
Lions
25 listedIsaac TeSlaa WR
ActiveTeSlaa registered one catch for nine yards on two targets in Sunday's 19-9 win over Miami.
Sione Vaki RB
ActiveVaki turned three carries into 14 yards and hauled in both of his targets for seven yards during the Lions'
Kerby Joseph S
OutLions head coach Dan Campbell ruled Joseph (knee) out for Sunday's game against the Patriots, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports.
Sam LaPorta TE
ActiveThe Lions have received trade calls on LaPorta leading up to Tuesday's deadline, but the team prefers to keep him with the hope of signing the tight end to a long-term deal, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com reports.
DJ Wonnum LB
Questionablequestionable
D.J. Reed CB
Questionablequestionable
Jacob Saylors RB
Questionablequestionable
Cade Mays C
Questionablequestionable
Andre Cisco S
ActiveThe Lions acquired Cisco from the Jets on Monday in exchange for a 2028 sixth-round pick, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Ahmed Hassanein DE
ActiveMekhi Wingo DT
ActiveJake Bates PK
ActiveBates went 4-for-4 on field-goal attempts and made his only extra-point try during Sunday's 19-9 win over the Dolphins.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NE |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5–1 | 3–3–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–5–1 | 3–3–2 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 3–2–2 |
| Underdog | 1–2–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.