Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
MIA went from 23% to 29% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 31 at 5:51 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing17/25, 170 YDS, 1 INT
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing20 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving8 REC, 86 YDS
Dolphins- Malik WillisPassing13/25, 128 YDS, 1 INT
- Ollie Gordon IIRushing16 CAR, 55 YDS
- Caleb DouglasReceiving6 REC, 70 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:28Jake Bates 43 Yd Field Goal19–9
- Q49:26Zane Gonzalez 34 Yd Field Goal16–9
- Q31:20Jahmyr Gibbs 8 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)16–6
- Q34:00Zane Gonzalez 52 Yd Field Goal9–6
- Q39:14Jake Bates 33 Yd Field Goal9–3
- Q23:30Jake Bates 40 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q11:02Zane Gonzalez 34 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q18:22Jake Bates 28 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:02Zane Gonzalez 34 Yd Field GoalDET 3 – 3 MIA · MIA 24% → 31% +7MIA 24% → 31%+7 pts
- Q23:30Jake Bates 40 Yd Field GoalDET 6 – 3 MIA · DET 66% → 75% +9DET 66% → 75%+9 pts
- Q39:14Jake Bates 33 Yd Field GoalDET 9 – 3 MIA · DET 74% → 83% +9DET 74% → 83%+9 pts
- Q34:00Zane Gonzalez 52 Yd Field GoalDET 9 – 6 MIA · MIA 16% → 26% +10MIA 16% → 26%+10 pts
- Q31:20Jahmyr Gibbs 8 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)DET 16 – 6 MIA · DET 74% → 93% +19DET 74% → 93%+19 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Lions 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- DET -6.5
- ML DET -290 / MIA +235
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -6.5
- DET 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- DET: Elo 72.5%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -250
- MIA +250 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 28.0 – 21.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 49.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1583 | 1387 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −13 | DET: Jared Goff · MIA: Malik Willis, usually Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Injuries | −5 | — | Key absences: Amon-Ra St. Brown |
| Elo ratings | DET +168 Elo | DET 72.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 74.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 73.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 71.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3229.0 | Points scored | 16.731st of 32 |
| 22nd of 3225.7 | Points allowed | 25.923rd of 32 |
| 10th of 32+3.3 | Margin | −9.131st of 32 |
| 5th of 325.94 | Yards per play | 5.1022nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.51 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6824th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321–2 | Road vs home | 0–327th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321486 | Opponent Elo | 15287th of 32 |
| 10th of 321583 | Elo rating | 138728th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–3–2 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–3–2 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 2–2–2 | — |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.