Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
DET went from 56% to 58% over 12 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 24 at 4:25 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- Kyler MurrayPassing17/29, 210 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Kyler MurrayRushing4 CAR, 35 YDS
- Jordan AddisonReceiving3 REC, 66 YDS
Lions- Jared GoffPassing18/25, 176 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing23 CAR, 153 YDS, 1 TD
- Jameson WilliamsReceiving4 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:35Jameson Williams 7 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)15–19
- Q48:44T.J. Hockenson 8 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Kyler Murray Pass to Jordan Addison for Two-Point Conversion)15–12
- Q34:40Jahmyr Gibbs 30 Yd Rush (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)7–12
- Q20:02Jake Bates 37 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q214:25Justin Jefferson 1 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Will Reichard Kick)7–3
- Q12:18Jake Bates 25 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:25Justin Jefferson 1 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 7 – 3 DET · MIN 34% → 54% +20MIN 34% → 54%+20 pts
- Q20:02Jake Bates 37 Yd Field GoalMIN 7 – 6 DET · DET 42% → 52% +11DET 42% → 52%+11 pts
- Q34:40Jahmyr Gibbs 30 Yd Rush (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)MIN 7 – 12 DET · DET 50% → 75% +24DET 50% → 75%+24 pts
- Q48:44T.J. Hockenson 8 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Kyler Murray Pass to Jordan Addison for Two-Point Conversion)MIN 15 – 12 DET · MIN 18% → 66% +48MIN 18% → 66%+48 pts
- Q44:35Jameson Williams 7 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)MIN 15 – 19 DET · DET 27% → 83% +57DET 27% → 83%+57 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Lions 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- DET -3
- ML MIN +142 / DET -170
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 39%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -4.5
- DET 34%
- Ratings vs. market
- −26.1 pts
- DET: Elo 34.2%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -141
- MIN +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 21.8 – 24.8 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1669 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +36 | — | MIN: Kyler Murray, usually J.J. McCarthy · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +113 Elo | MIN 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 60.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3220.8 | Points scored | 30.72nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3212.3 | Points allowed | 27.526th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+8.5 | Margin | +3.29th of 32 |
| 27th of 324.66 | Yards per play | 5.995th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.46 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5321st of 32 |
| 1st of 323–0 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
| 26th of 321475 | Opponent Elo | 145529th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321669 | Elo rating | 155512th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–2 | 1–3–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 1–3–2 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 1–2–2 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 1–5 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–5 | 5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–4 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.