Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Daniel JonesPassing13/22, 108 YDS, 1 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing18 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD
- Keenan AllenReceiving3 REC, 31 YDS
Vikings- Kyler MurrayPassing14/24, 150 YDS, 1 TD
- Jordan MasonRushing15 CAR, 68 YDS
- Justin JeffersonReceiving4 REC, 44 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:39Will Reichard 52 Yd Field Goal10–16
- Q414:36T.J. Hockenson 5 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Will Reichard Kick)10–13
- Q20:00Spencer Shrader 43 Yd Field Goal10–6
- Q26:37Will Reichard 47 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q214:52Will Reichard 28 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q19:13Jonathan Taylor 38 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:13Jonathan Taylor 38 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)IND 7 – 0 MIN · IND 28% → 46% +17IND 28% → 46%+17 pts
- Q26:37Will Reichard 47 Yd Field GoalIND 7 – 6 MIN · MIN 56% → 65% +9MIN 56% → 65%+9 pts
- Q20:00Spencer Shrader 43 Yd Field GoalIND 10 – 6 MIN · IND 37% → 47% +10IND 37% → 47%+10 pts
- Q414:36T.J. Hockenson 5 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Will Reichard Kick)IND 10 – 13 MIN · MIN 42% → 75% +34MIN 42% → 75%+34 pts
- Q41:39Will Reichard 52 Yd Field GoalIND 10 – 16 MIN · MIN 89% → >99% +10MIN 89% → >99%+10 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Vikings 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -6.5
- ML IND +235 / MIN -290
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -12.5
- MIN 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- +14.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 86.1%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -267
- IND +267 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 17.5 – 24.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1405 | 1663 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +18 | +41 | IND: Daniel Jones · MIN: Kyler Murray, usually J.J. McCarthy (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +316 Elo | MIN 86.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 82.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 72.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3224.0 | Points scored | 21.822nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3227.3 | Points allowed | 12.81st of 32 |
| 25th of 32−3.3 | Margin | +9.03rd of 32 |
| 24th of 324.67 | Yards per play | 4.6127th of 32 |
| 28th of 325.97 | Yards allowed per play | 4.622nd of 32 |
| 29th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 21st of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 147526th of 32 |
| 24th of 321405 | Elo rating | 16632nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–3 | 4–1 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 4–1 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 1–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.