Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Cam WardPassing11/22, 102 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Tony PollardRushing19 CAR, 76 YDS
- Carnell TateReceiving6 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD
Colts- Daniel JonesPassing22/42, 269 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing21 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- Keenan AllenReceiving8 REC, 82 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:43Joey Slye 44 Yd Field Goal26–20
- Q42:03Joey Slye 49 Yd Field Goal23–20
- Q45:32Jonathan Taylor 4 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)20–20
- Q410:17Oluwafemi Oladejo 14 Yd return of blocked punt (J.Slye kick)20–13
- Q413:00Carnell Tate 8 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)13–13
- Q33:21Joey Slye 56 Yd Field Goal6–13
- Q313:30Joey Slye 29 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q20:11Spencer Shrader 47 Yd Field Goal0–13
- Q22:06Spencer Shrader 23 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q211:07Mo Alie-Cox 1 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:07Mo Alie-Cox 1 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Spencer Shrader Kick)TEN 0 – 7 IND · IND 70% → 85% +15IND 70% → 85%+15 pts
- Q413:00Carnell Tate 8 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)TEN 13 – 13 IND · TEN 11% → 38% +28TEN 11% → 38%+28 pts
- Q410:17Oluwafemi Oladejo 14 Yd return of blocked punt (J.Slye kick)TEN 20 – 13 IND · TEN 40% → 79% +39TEN 40% → 79%+39 pts
- Q45:32Jonathan Taylor 4 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)TEN 20 – 20 IND · IND 10% → 58% +47IND 10% → 58%+47 pts
- Q42:03Joey Slye 49 Yd Field GoalTEN 23 – 20 IND · TEN 45% → 82% +36TEN 45% → 82%+36 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Colts 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- IND -6.5
- ML TEN +260 / IND -325
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -8.5
- IND 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- IND: Elo 77.6%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- IND -280
- TEN +280 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 19.0 – 25.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1267 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Elo ratings | IND +216 Elo | IND 77.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 77.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 77.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 73.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3211.6 | Points scored | 24.811th of 32 |
| 11th of 3221.8 | Points allowed | 27.627th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−10.2 | Margin | −2.824th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.51 | Yards per play | 4.5628th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.23 | Yards allowed per play | 6.2431st of 32 |
| 27th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 32 |
| 20th of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 152610th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321271 | Elo rating | 144822nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEN |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEN 0–6 IND in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.