Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
NYJ went from 50% to 53% over 11 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 24 at 4:25 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Kirk CousinsPassing19/26, 247 YDS, 3 TD
- Mike Washington Jr.Rushing25 CAR, 83 YDS
- Brock BowersReceiving7 REC, 92 YDS, 2 TD
Jets- Geno SmithPassing20/32, 290 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Braelon AllenRushing21 CAR, 147 YDS, 1 TD
- Adonai MitchellReceiving7 REC, 142 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:27Matt Gay 53 Yd Field Goal38–33
- Q44:31Jason Sanders 31 Yd Field Goal35–33
- Q411:33Jalen Nailor 2 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)35–30
- Q34:14Kirk Cousins 1 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)28–30
- Q38:20Braelon Allen 21 Yd Rush (Jason Sanders Kick)21–30
- Q39:59Brock Bowers 2 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)21–23
- Q20:09Jason Sanders 39 Yd Field Goal14–23
- Q26:18Adonai Mitchell 12 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Sanders Kick)14–20
- Q210:44Dylan Laube 95 Yd Kickoff Return (Matt Gay Kick)14–13
- Q210:56Isaiah Williams 18 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Sanders Kick)7–13
- Q12:13Jason Sanders 36 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q17:23Brock Bowers 12 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)7–3
- Q112:50Jason Sanders 21 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:18Adonai Mitchell 12 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Sanders Kick)LV 14 – 20 NYJ · NYJ 49% → 70% +22NYJ 49% → 70%+22 pts
- Q39:59Brock Bowers 2 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)LV 21 – 23 NYJ · LV 18% → 41% +23LV 18% → 41%+23 pts
- Q38:20Braelon Allen 21 Yd Rush (Jason Sanders Kick)LV 21 – 30 NYJ · NYJ 60% → 83% +23NYJ 60% → 83%+23 pts
- Q34:14Kirk Cousins 1 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)LV 28 – 30 NYJ · LV 15% → 40% +25LV 15% → 40%+25 pts
- Q411:33Jalen Nailor 2 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)LV 35 – 30 NYJ · LV 38% → 75% +38LV 38% → 75%+38 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Jets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- NYJ -1.5
- ML LV +102 / NYJ -122
- Pre-line forecast
- NYJ 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYJ -0.5
- NYJ 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- NYJ: Elo 51.5%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- NYJ -111
- LV +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 22.0 – 23.5 NYJ
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1364 | 1342 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +39 | +35 | LV: Kirk Cousins, usually Geno Smith · NYJ: Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | NYJ +10 Elo | NYJ 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LV 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYJ 50.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYJ 52.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3226.1 | Points scored | 19.627th of 32 |
| 29th of 3228.1 | Points allowed | 21.413th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−2.0 | Margin | −1.921st of 32 |
| 17th of 325.35 | Yards per play | 5.2119th of 32 |
| 30th of 325.95 | Yards allowed per play | 4.925th of 32 |
| 4th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 1–218th of 32 |
| 10th of 321514 | Opponent Elo | 149421st of 32 |
| 30th of 321364 | Elo rating | 134231st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LV |  NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–2 | 4–2–1 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 4–2–1 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 3–1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LV 1–0 NYJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.