Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
BUF went from 64% to 60% over 15 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 24 at 4:25 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Joe FagnanoPassing10/21, 91 YDS, 1 INT
- Derrick HenryRushing11 CAR, 53 YDS, 1 TD
- Rashod BatemanReceiving1 REC, 22 YDS
Bills- Josh AllenPassing21/34, 289 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- James Cook IIIRushing21 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- Dalton KincaidReceiving4 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q45:58Dalton Kincaid 23 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)10–36
- Q412:18DJ Moore 11 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)10–29
- Q38:59James Cook III 5 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)10–23
- Q311:28Tyler Loop 26 Yd Field Goal10–16
- Q20:09Tyler Bass 51 Yd Field Goal7–16
- Q29:50Tyler Bass 22 Yd Field Goal7–13
- Q13:18Derrick Henry 2 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)7–10
- Q16:05Tyler Bass 56 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q110:10Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:10Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)BAL 0 – 7 BUF · BUF 59% → 76% +16BUF 59% → 76%+16 pts
- Q13:18Derrick Henry 2 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)BAL 7 – 10 BUF · BAL 18% → 33% +16BAL 18% → 33%+16 pts
- Q29:50Tyler Bass 22 Yd Field GoalBAL 7 – 13 BUF · BUF 67% → 75% +8BUF 67% → 75%+8 pts
- Q311:28Tyler Loop 26 Yd Field GoalBAL 10 – 16 BUF · BAL 16% → 23% +8BAL 16% → 23%+8 pts
- Q38:59James Cook III 5 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)BAL 10 – 23 BUF · BUF 77% → 93% +15BUF 77% → 93%+15 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Bills 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -3
- ML BAL +136 / BUF -162
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -3.5
- BUF 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- BUF: Elo 62.0%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- BUF -147
- BAL +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 25.8 – 28.8 BUF
- Posted spread, posted total 54.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1659 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +48 | — | BAL: Lamar Jackson · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Injuries | — | −5 | Key absences: Dalton Kincaid |
| Elo ratings | BUF +85 Elo | BUF 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 59.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 59.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 3224.1 | Points scored | 32.81st of 32 |
| 18th of 3223.9 | Points allowed | 28.530th of 32 |
| 17th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +4.38th of 32 |
| 6th of 325.94 | Yards per play | 6.481st of 32 |
| 13th of 325.28 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6524th of 32 |
| 4th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 2–115th of 32 |
| 31st of 321436 | Opponent Elo | 149420th of 32 |
| 11th of 321557 | Elo rating | 16593rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–4–1 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–4–1 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 1–3–1 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 1–2 BUF in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.