Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Tyler HuntleyPassing19/31, 165 YDS, 1 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing17 CAR, 58 YDS
- Zay FlowersReceiving6 REC, 66 YDS
Browns- Deshaun WatsonPassing16/26, 164 YDS
- Jaleel McLaughlinRushing9 CAR, 41 YDS
- Jerry JeudyReceiving4 REC, 69 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Andre Szmyt 37 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q48:33Audric Estime 2 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick)10–10
- Q37:48Andre Szmyt 48 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q14:37Tyler Loop 34 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q18:11Josh Cuevas 2 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Tyler Loop Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:11Josh Cuevas 2 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Tyler Loop Kick)BAL 7 – 0 CLE · BAL 59% → 76% +17BAL 59% → 76%+17 pts
- Q14:37Tyler Loop 34 Yd Field GoalBAL 10 – 0 CLE · BAL 76% → 82% +6BAL 76% → 82%+6 pts
- Q37:48Andre Szmyt 48 Yd Field GoalBAL 10 – 3 CLE · CLE 12% → 19% +7CLE 12% → 19%+7 pts
- Q48:33Audric Estime 2 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick)BAL 10 – 10 CLE · CLE 10% → 46% +36CLE 10% → 46%+36 pts
- Q40:00Andre Szmyt 37 Yd Field GoalBAL 10 – 13 CLE · CLE 46% → 100% +54CLE 46% → 100%+54 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Ravens 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -3
- ML BAL -166 / CLE +140
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -2
- BAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 57.6%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- BAL -149
- CLE +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 21.3 – 18.3 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 39.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1574 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Injuries | −55 | −5 | Key absences: Lamar Jackson, Quinshon Judkins |
| Elo ratings | BAL +53 Elo | BAL 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 57.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 59.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3229.2 | Points scored | 18.627th of 32 |
| 18th of 3223.8 | Points allowed | 22.414th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+5.4 | Margin | −3.825th of 32 |
| 4th of 326.36 | Yards per play | 4.6526th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.25 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1913th of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 32nd of 321400 | Opponent Elo | 148325th of 32 |
| 8th of 321601 | Elo rating | 144423rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–2–1 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–2–1 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 1–2–1 | — |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–1 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–1 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 4–2 CLE in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.