Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing22/30, 292 YDS, 4 TD
- Chase BrownRushing11 CAR, 39 YDS
- Tee HigginsReceiving6 REC, 148 YDS, 1 TD
Ravens- Tyler HuntleyPassing23/34, 298 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Derrick HenryRushing17 CAR, 45 YDS
- Zay FlowersReceiving8 REC, 137 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q46:21Drew Sample 16 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)35–13
- Q47:25Ja'Marr Chase 2 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)28–13
- Q411:14Samaje Perine 1 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick)21–13
- Q34:29Tee Higgins 13 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)14–13
- Q39:24Mike Gesicki 6 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)7–13
- Q20:50Tyler Loop 24 Yd Field Goal0–13
- Q29:42Tyler Loop 34 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q113:36Zay Flowers 48 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Tyler Loop Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q113:36Zay Flowers 48 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Tyler Loop Kick)CIN 0 – 7 BAL · BAL 43% → 60% +18BAL 43% → 60%+18 pts
- Q29:42Tyler Loop 34 Yd Field GoalCIN 0 – 10 BAL · BAL 65% → 73% +8BAL 65% → 73%+8 pts
- Q39:24Mike Gesicki 6 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 7 – 13 BAL · CIN 12% → 32% +20CIN 12% → 32%+20 pts
- Q34:29Tee Higgins 13 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 14 – 13 BAL · CIN 29% → 59% +30CIN 29% → 59%+30 pts
- Q411:14Samaje Perine 1 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 21 – 13 BAL · CIN 59% → 89% +30CIN 59% → 89%+30 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Bengals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- CIN -2.5
- ML CIN -148 / BAL +124
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -3
- CIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- CIN: Elo 60.4%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -135
- BAL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 24.5 – 22.0 BAL
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1587 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +25 | −158 | CIN: Joe Burrow · BAL: Tyler Huntley, Lamar Jackson out (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +73 Elo | CIN 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 60.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 57.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3225.6 | Points scored | 26.07th of 32 |
| 14th of 3221.8 | Points allowed | 22.015th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+3.8 | Margin | +4.09th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.49 | Yards per play | 6.014th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.61 | Yards allowed per play | 5.0412th of 32 |
| 5th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 1–116th of 32 |
| 17th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 140632nd of 32 |
| 16th of 321513 | Elo rating | 158710th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–3 | 2–3–1 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 2–3–1 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 1–3–1 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 1–5 BAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.