Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Bills at 74%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Bills rate higher (1718 to 1563 Elo) and the Bills have home field.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Chiefs
Now 87%
95%
with a win
85%
with a loss
This game is worth 10 points of playoff chance to them.
Bills
Now >99%
>99%
with a win
>99%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Bills 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -8
- BUF 76%
- Fair odds
- BUF -284
- KC +284 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- KC 20.0 – 27.4 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1718 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −13 | — | KC: Patrick Mahomes (65%) or Justin Fields (35%) · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +203 Elo | BUF 76.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 74.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3225.3 | Points scored | 32.01st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3217.9 | Points allowed | 23.416th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+7.4 | Margin | +8.63rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.26 | Yards per play | 6.014th of 32 |
| 4th of 324.88 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2213th of 32 |
| 14th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 3–19th of 32 |
| 29th of 321464 | Opponent Elo | 151510th of 32 |
| 13th of 321563 | Elo rating | 17181st of 32 |
| 17th of 32+0.2 | Offense, adjusted | +4.91st of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+2.2 | Defense, adjusted | +0.214th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Chiefs
25 listedJalen Royals WR
ActiveRoyals caught both of his targets for 18 yards Sunday in a 35-12 rout of the Jets.
Peter Woods DT
Questionablequestionable
Mansoor Delane CB
Questionablequestionable
Noah Gray TE
ActiveGray caught his only target for 11 yards Sunday in a 35-12 win against the Jets.
Cyrus Allen WR
ActiveAllen failed to catch his only target in Sunday's 35-12 win over the Jets.
Jaylon Moore OT
QuestionableHead coach Andy Reid stated Moore (ankle) is considered "day-to-day," Charles Goldman of AtoZSports.com reports.
Ben VanSumeren FB
ActiveGarrett Nussmeier QB
ActiveDiego Pounds OT
ActiveXavier Worthy WR
QuestionableCoach Andy Reid said Monday that Worthy (hamstring) is considered day-to-day in advance of Sunday's game against the Falcons, Matt McMullen of the Chiefs' official site reports.
Patrick Mahomes QB
QuestionableChiefs coach Andy Reid said Monday that Mahomes (elbow) is considered day-to-day as this Sunday's game against the Falcons approaches, Sam McDowell of The Kansas City Star reports.
Emmett Johnson RB
ActiveJohnson rushed six times for 34 yards and a touchdown and returned one kickoff for 29 yards in the Chiefs' 35-12 win over the Jets on Sunday.
Bills
25 listedKeleki Latu TE
ActiveLatu caught his lone target for a 25-yard touchdown Monday in a 23-6 win against the Vikings.
Jackson Hawes TE
ActiveHawes caught his lone target for eight yards during Buffalo's win over the Vikings on Monday.
Tyler Bass PK
ActiveBass connected on all three of his field-goal attempts and made both of his extra-point tries during the Bills' 23-6 win over the Vikings on Monday.
Dawson Knox TE
ActiveKnox caught four passes for 37 yards on five targets in Monday night's 23-6 win over the Vikings.
Mike Danna DE
ActiveSkyler Bell WR
ActiveJalon Kilgore S
ActiveKeon Coleman WR
ActiveColeman finished Monday's 23-6 win over the Vikings with three catches for 17 yards on six targets.
Ty Johnson RB
ActiveJohnson rushed once for one yard and caught both of his targets for 36 yards against the Vikings in a 23-6 victory Monday.
Khalil Shakir WR
ActiveShakir secured all four targets for 58 yards in the Bills' 23-6 win over the Vikings on Monday night.
Ray Davis RB
ActiveDavis logged two carries for two yards and didn't catch his only target Monday in a 23-6 victory against the Vikings.
Dalton Kincaid TE
ActiveKincaid secured all three targets for 28 yards in the Bills' 23-6 win over the Vikings on Monday night.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–4 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 2–3 BUF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.