Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
DEN went from 48% to 49% over 11 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 24 at 5:30 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing30/41, 321 YDS, 3 TD
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing21 CAR, 69 YDS
- Emmett JohnsonReceiving5 REC, 128 YDS, 1 TD
Broncos- Bo NixPassing20/32, 222 YDS, 2 TD
- Jonah ColemanRushing11 CAR, 41 YDS, 1 TD
- Jonah ColemanReceiving4 REC, 63 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:56Jonah Coleman 5 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)24–28
- Q48:55Nate Adkins 2 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Bo Nix Pass to Jaylen Waddle for Two-Point Conversion)24–21
- Q31:38Noah Gray 4 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)24–13
- Q20:19Harrison Butker 45 Yd Field Goal17–13
- Q21:15Jaylen Waddle 1 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)14–13
- Q27:40Emmett Johnson 73 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)14–6
- Q214:08Wil Lutz 45 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q16:04Rashee Rice 11 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)7–3
- Q19:43Wil Lutz 39 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:40Emmett Johnson 73 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 14 – 6 DEN · KC 54% → 74% +20KC 54% → 74%+20 pts
- Q21:15Jaylen Waddle 1 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)KC 14 – 13 DEN · DEN 24% → 46% +22DEN 24% → 46%+22 pts
- Q31:38Noah Gray 4 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 24 – 13 DEN · KC 69% → 91% +22KC 69% → 91%+22 pts
- Q48:55Nate Adkins 2 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Bo Nix Pass to Jaylen Waddle for Two-Point Conversion)KC 24 – 21 DEN · DEN 4% → 31% +27DEN 4% → 31%+27 pts
- Q41:56Jonah Coleman 5 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)KC 24 – 28 DEN · DEN 15% → 92% +77DEN 15% → 92%+77 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Chiefs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- KC -1.5
- ML KC -118 / DEN -102
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 40%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3.5
- KC 38%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.9 pts
- KC: Elo 37.8%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- KC -103
- DEN +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 21.0 – 19.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1632 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +19 | +7 | KC: Patrick Mahomes · DEN: Bo Nix (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Injuries | — | −5 | Key absences: Jaylen Waddle |
| Elo ratings | DEN +86 Elo | DEN 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 59.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 50.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 3223.8 | Points scored | 20.625th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3217.2 | Points allowed | 20.18th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+6.7 | Margin | +0.416th of 32 |
| 1st of 326.36 | Yards per play | 4.7229th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.01 | Yards allowed per play | 5.009th of 32 |
| 5th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
| 27th of 321475 | Opponent Elo | 15493rd of 32 |
| 12th of 321564 | Elo rating | 16324th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–3 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 4–0 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 3–4 DEN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.