Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Sam DarnoldPassing27/51, 278 YDS, 2 INT
- Emanuel WilsonRushing14 CAR, 52 YDS
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving12 REC, 134 YDS
Broncos- Bo NixPassing17/27, 107 YDS
- J.K. DobbinsRushing17 CAR, 41 YDS, 1 TD
- RJ HarveyReceiving3 REC, 31 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT4:53Wil Lutz 53 Yd Field Goal14–17
- Q40:03Jason Myers 34 Yd Field Goal14–14
- Q45:41George Holani 1 Yd Rush (Sam Darnold Pass to Rashid Shaheed for Two-Point Conversion)11–14
- Q25:15RJ Harvey 1 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)3–14
- Q212:52J.K. Dobbins 4 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)3–7
- Q16:31Jason Myers 55 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q212:52J.K. Dobbins 4 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)SEA 3 – 7 DEN · DEN 34% → 55% +20DEN 34% → 55%+20 pts
- Q25:15RJ Harvey 1 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)SEA 3 – 14 DEN · DEN 57% → 77% +20DEN 57% → 77%+20 pts
- Q45:41George Holani 1 Yd Rush (Sam Darnold Pass to Rashid Shaheed for Two-Point Conversion)SEA 11 – 14 DEN · SEA 1% → 29% +28SEA 1% → 29%+28 pts
- Q40:03Jason Myers 34 Yd Field GoalSEA 14 – 14 DEN · SEA <1% → 50% +50SEA <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT4:53Wil Lutz 53 Yd Field GoalSEA 14 – 17 DEN · DEN 48% → 73% +25DEN 48% → 73%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -3
- ML SEA -155 / DEN +130
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -2
- SEA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 58.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -140
- DEN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 21.8 – 18.8 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1678 | 1597 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +19 | +7 | SEA: Sam Darnold · DEN: Bo Nix (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +56 Elo | SEA 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3226.8 | Points scored | 19.426th of 32 |
| 8th of 3221.0 | Points allowed | 22.213th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+5.8 | Margin | −2.823rd of 32 |
| 13th of 325.52 | Yards per play | 4.6926th of 32 |
| 1st of 324.15 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2313th of 32 |
| 10th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 24th of 321485 | Opponent Elo | 15693rd of 32 |
| 1st of 321678 | Elo rating | 15978th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–2–2 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 1–2–2 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 1–2–2 | 3–0 |
| Underdog | — | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 1–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–0 DEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.