San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing19/29, 189 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Christian McCaffreyRushing11 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- Mike EvansReceiving7 REC, 113 YDS, 1 TD
Seahawks- Sam DarnoldPassing18/29, 195 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Emanuel WilsonRushing20 CAR, 61 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving5 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:56Eddy Pineiro 44 Yd Field Goal32–29
- Q46:55Jason Myers 40 Yd Field Goal29–29
- Q411:02Brandin Cooks 7 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Brock Purdy Pass to Mike Evans for Two-Point Conversion)29–26
- Q33:02Jason Myers 48 Yd Field Goal21–26
- Q35:52Jaxon Smith-Njigba 16 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)21–23
- Q38:56Jason Myers 43 Yd Field Goal21–16
- Q20:13Gracen Halton Fumble Recovery in End Zone (Eddy Pineiro Kick)21–13
- Q21:56Jason Myers 50 Yd Field Goal14–13
- Q28:17Christian McCaffrey 11 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)14–10
- Q213:27Jason Myers 49 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q15:43Emanuel Wilson 2 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)7–7
- Q111:12Mike Evans 2 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q20:13Gracen Halton Fumble Recovery in End Zone (Eddy Pineiro Kick)SF 21 – 13 SEA · SF 46% → 70% +24SF 46% → 70%+24 pts
- Q35:52Jaxon Smith-Njigba 16 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)SF 21 – 23 SEA · SEA 35% → 64% +29SEA 35% → 64%+29 pts
- Q411:02Brandin Cooks 7 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Brock Purdy Pass to Mike Evans for Two-Point Conversion)SF 29 – 26 SEA · SF 20% → 63% +43SF 20% → 63%+43 pts
- Q46:55Jason Myers 40 Yd Field GoalSF 29 – 29 SEA · SEA 32% → 53% +22SEA 32% → 53%+22 pts
- Q41:56Eddy Pineiro 44 Yd Field GoalSF 32 – 29 SEA · SF 48% → 84% +36SF 48% → 84%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -3
- ML SF +140 / SEA -166
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -3.5
- SEA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 62.3%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -151
- SF +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 21.8 – 24.8 SEA
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1641 | 1700 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +30 | +22 | SF: Brock Purdy · SEA: Sam Darnold (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +87 Elo | SEA 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 63.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 60.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3230.5 | Points scored | 26.39th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3216.0 | Points allowed | 18.34th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+14.5 | Margin | +8.05th of 32 |
| 1st of 326.82 | Yards per play | 5.868th of 32 |
| 6th of 324.79 | Yards allowed per play | 4.001st of 32 |
| 20th of 321485 | Opponent Elo | 144730th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321641 | Elo rating | 17001st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  SF |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–8 | 15–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–3 | 13–4 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 11–8 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 4–3 SEA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.