Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ARI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos
Cardinals- Jacoby BrissettPassing27/48, 272 YDS, 1 TD
- Bam KnightRushing7 CAR, 48 YDS
- Trey McBrideReceiving10 REC, 111 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q46:21Chad Ryland 41 Yd Field Goal30–16
- Q48:39Wil Lutz 31 Yd Field Goal30–13
- Q30:00J.K. Dobbins 1 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)27–13
- Q33:50Trey McBride 7 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)20–13
- Q310:26RJ Harvey 52 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)20–6
- Q23:43Bo Nix 62 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)13–6
- Q24:30Chad Ryland 26 Yd Field Goal6–6
- Q214:16Chad Ryland 30 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q11:08Wil Lutz 43 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q111:00Wil Lutz 48 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:30Chad Ryland 26 Yd Field GoalDEN 6 – 6 ARI · ARI 27% → 36% +9ARI 27% → 36%+9 pts
- Q23:43Bo Nix 62 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 13 – 6 ARI · DEN 64% → 83% +19DEN 64% → 83%+19 pts
- Q310:26RJ Harvey 52 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 20 – 6 ARI · DEN 84% → 95% +11DEN 84% → 95%+11 pts
- Q33:50Trey McBride 7 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)DEN 20 – 13 ARI · ARI 3% → 15% +11ARI 3% → 15%+11 pts
- Q30:00J.K. Dobbins 1 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 27 – 13 ARI · DEN 87% → 98% +11DEN 87% → 98%+11 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Broncos 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -4.5
- ML DEN -230 / ARI +190
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -9
- DEN 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.1 pts
- DEN: Elo 79.0%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- DEN -212
- ARI +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 24.0 – 19.5 ARI
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1618 | 1380 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | −7 | DEN: Bo Nix · ARI: Jacoby Brissett (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Injuries | — | −15 | Key absences: Jeremiyah Love |
| Elo ratings | DEN +230 Elo | DEN 79.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 70.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 77.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 67.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 3219.0 | Points scored | 21.024th of 32 |
| 10th of 3220.8 | Points allowed | 29.732nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−1.8 | Margin | −8.730th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.40 | Yards per play | 4.5629th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.05 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0130th of 32 |
| 21st of 321–2 | Road vs home | 0–226th of 32 |
| 1st of 321568 | Opponent Elo | 15374th of 32 |
| 5th of 321618 | Elo rating | 138030th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 3–0 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 1–5 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–5 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.