Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
SEA went from 57% to 57% over 3 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 24 at 4:25 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing19/33, 165 YDS, 1 INT
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing14 CAR, 36 YDS
- Travis KelceReceiving4 REC, 44 YDS
Seahawks- Sam DarnoldPassing20/28, 257 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Emanuel WilsonRushing24 CAR, 100 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving9 REC, 150 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:47Emanuel Wilson 21 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)3–20
- Q31:42Harrison Butker 50 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q38:09Jason Myers 35 Yd Field Goal0–13
- Q21:44Jaxon Smith-Njigba 28 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)0–10
- Q28:22Jason Myers 25 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:22Jason Myers 25 Yd Field GoalKC 0 – 3 SEA · SEA 56% → 65% +9SEA 56% → 65%+9 pts
- Q21:44Jaxon Smith-Njigba 28 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)KC 0 – 10 SEA · SEA 65% → 84% +19SEA 65% → 84%+19 pts
- Q38:09Jason Myers 35 Yd Field GoalKC 0 – 13 SEA · SEA 87% → 92% +5SEA 87% → 92%+5 pts
- Q31:42Harrison Butker 50 Yd Field GoalKC 3 – 13 SEA · KC 5% → 10% +5KC 5% → 10%+5 pts
- Q43:47Emanuel Wilson 21 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)KC 3 – 20 SEA · SEA >99% → >99% +1SEA >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Seahawks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -3
- ML KC +120 / SEA -142
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -4
- SEA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 63.7%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -132
- KC +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 19.8 – 22.8 SEA
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1589 | 1657 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +21 | +15 | KC: Patrick Mahomes · SEA: Sam Darnold (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +98 Elo | SEA 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 62.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3228.0 | Points scored | 24.711th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3216.6 | Points allowed | 20.37th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+11.4 | Margin | +4.37th of 32 |
| 1st of 326.70 | Yards per play | 5.2617th of 32 |
| 4th of 324.81 | Yards allowed per play | 3.961st of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 2–113th of 32 |
| 30th of 321435 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 32 |
| 9th of 321589 | Elo rating | 16573rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–2 | 1–3–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 1–3–2 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 1–3–2 |
| Underdog | — | — |
| Overs–unders | 2–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.