Buffalo Bills at New York Jets, NFL forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the Bills favored by 8.5, and the forecast follows it (Bills 78%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings like the Bills more, at 88%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Bills rate higher (1718 to 1305 Elo), the Jets have home field and quarterback changes favor the Jets.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Bills
Now >99%
>99%
with a win
>99%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Jets
Now <1%
<1%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
How the forecast moved
NYJ went from 22% to 22% over 9 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, November 7 at 9:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Tue, Nov 10, 10:24 PM ESTGarrett Wilson back · forecast NYJ 22%
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Bills 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -8.5
- ML BUF -410 / NYJ +320
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -14
- BUF 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.0 pts
- BUF: Elo 88.2%, market 77.2%
- Fair odds
- BUF -358
- NYJ +358 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- BUF 29.5 – 21.0 NYJ
- Posted spread, posted total 50.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1718 | 1305 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +33 | BUF: Josh Allen · NYJ: Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Injuries | — | −5 | Key absences: Garrett Wilson |
| Elo ratings | BUF +349 Elo | BUF 88.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 75.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 85.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 78.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3232.0 | Points scored | 20.225th of 32 |
| 16th of 3223.4 | Points allowed | 24.820th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+8.6 | Margin | −4.625th of 32 |
| 4th of 326.01 | Yards per play | 5.2617th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.22 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1110th of 32 |
| 1st of 324–0 | Road vs home | 1–319th of 32 |
| 10th of 321515 | Opponent Elo | 149317th of 32 |
| 1st of 321718 | Elo rating | 130531st of 32 |
| 1st of 32+4.9 | Offense, adjusted | −2.430th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.2 | Defense, adjusted | −2.629th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from each player's share of his team's targets, carries and passes, next to DraftKings lines. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 17,384 graded NFL lines (log loss 0.689 vs our model's 0.721). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −1.9% a bet over 4,421 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno SmithNYJ | QB · 31 attempts | 236.1 | 235.2 | 220.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 50%* | 50% | |
| Josh AllenBUF | QB · 30 attempts | 226.0 | 248.2 | 228.5 | 8/10 games over this line | 49%* | 43% |
* DraftKings lists these lines in ESPN's feed without prices, so each is read as the book's 50/50 point, the chance leans only slightly toward our model, and a parlay can't show what the book would pay for them.
What if…
Pick something that might happen in this game and see how every other line's chance moves if it does.
- Breece Hall (NYJ) over 17.5 receiving yards49%60%
- Garrett Wilson (NYJ) over 63.5 receiving yards48%59%
- Breece Hall (NYJ) over 2.5 receptions48%56%
- Garrett Wilson (NYJ) over 5.5 receptions48%56%
- Breece Hall (NYJ) over 78.5 rushing + receiving yards48%55%
- Breece Hall (NYJ) over 56.5 rushing yards48%45%
- Josh Allen (BUF) over 6.5 carries50%48%
- James Cook III (BUF) over 19.5 carries50%48%
- Jets win22%24%
- Bills win78%76%
His other lines (4)
- Geno Smith (NYJ) over 21.5 completions49%75%
- Geno Smith (NYJ) over 32.5 pass attempts49%69%
- Geno Smith (NYJ) over 1.5 passing touchdowns49%64%
- Geno Smith (NYJ) over 0.5 interceptions thrown49%47%
What each chance becomes if it happens, from how players' stats and results moved together in 467 past games, the same numbers behind same-game parlays (tested on games the fit never saw). It says how things are linked, not that any of it will happen.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Bills
25 listedKeleki Latu TE
ActiveLatu caught his lone target for a 25-yard touchdown Monday in a 23-6 win against the Vikings.
Jackson Hawes TE
ActiveHawes caught his lone target for eight yards during Buffalo's win over the Vikings on Monday.
Tyler Bass PK
ActiveBass connected on all three of his field-goal attempts and made both of his extra-point tries during the Bills' 23-6 win over the Vikings on Monday.
Dawson Knox TE
ActiveKnox caught four passes for 37 yards on five targets in Monday night's 23-6 win over the Vikings.
Mike Danna DE
ActiveSkyler Bell WR
ActiveJalon Kilgore S
ActiveKeon Coleman WR
ActiveColeman finished Monday's 23-6 win over the Vikings with three catches for 17 yards on six targets.
Ty Johnson RB
ActiveJohnson rushed once for one yard and caught both of his targets for 36 yards against the Vikings in a 23-6 victory Monday.
Khalil Shakir WR
ActiveShakir secured all four targets for 58 yards in the Bills' 23-6 win over the Vikings on Monday night.
Ray Davis RB
ActiveDavis logged two carries for two yards and didn't catch his only target Monday in a 23-6 victory against the Vikings.
Dalton Kincaid TE
ActiveKincaid secured all three targets for 28 yards in the Bills' 23-6 win over the Vikings on Monday night.
Jets
25 listedGarrett Wilson WR
−5 EloQuestionableTeam receiving leader (43 REC, 527 YDS, 3 TD)
questionable
Isaiah Williams WR
ActiveWilliams did not draw a target in Sunday's Week 9 loss to Kansas City. However, he rushed once for four yards, returned one punt for 18 yards and returned two kickoffs for 55 yards.
Trevin Wallace LB
Questionablequestionable
Nahshon Wright CB
Questionablequestionable
Joseph Ossai DE
Questionablequestionable
Mason Taylor TE
ActiveTaylor recorded one catch for 11 yards on two targets in Sunday's 35-12 loss to the Chiefs.
Isaiah Davis RB
ActiveDavis didn't play any offensive snaps in Sunday's 35-12 loss to the Chiefs.
Troy Reeder LB
ActiveThe Jets signed Reeder to their active roster Monday, Amanda Vogt of the team's official site reports.
Blake Freeland OL
ActiveTim Patrick WR
ActiveKohl Levao G
ActiveWill McDonald IV DE
ActiveMcDonald put in a request for the Jets to trade him ahead of Tuesday's deadline, Ian Rapoport and Rich Cimini of ESPN report.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–2 | 4–4–1 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 4–4–1 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 5–1 NYJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.