Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Deshaun WatsonPassing25/36, 308 YDS, 1 INT
- Quinshon JudkinsRushing17 CAR, 96 YDS, 2 TD
- KC ConcepcionReceiving8 REC, 129 YDS
Titans- Cam WardPassing20/31, 181 YDS, 1 INT
- Tony PollardRushing25 CAR, 129 YDS, 3 TD
- Carnell TateReceiving5 REC, 69 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Andre Szmyt 32 Yd Field Goal27–24
- Q40:58Tony Pollard 1 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)24–24
- Q44:34Deshaun Watson 9 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick)24–17
- Q48:41Joey Slye 29 Yd Field Goal17–17
- Q20:00Andre Szmyt 28 Yd Field Goal17–14
- Q22:17Quinshon Judkins 6 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick)14–14
- Q15:32Quinshon Judkins 5 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick)7–14
- Q18:35Tony Pollard 10 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)0–14
- Q112:57Tony Pollard 36 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:17Quinshon Judkins 6 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick)CLE 14 – 14 TEN · CLE 31% → 54% +23CLE 31% → 54%+23 pts
- Q48:41Joey Slye 29 Yd Field GoalCLE 17 – 17 TEN · TEN 29% → 48% +19TEN 29% → 48%+19 pts
- Q44:34Deshaun Watson 9 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick)CLE 24 – 17 TEN · CLE 51% → 95% +43CLE 51% → 95%+43 pts
- Q40:58Tony Pollard 1 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)CLE 24 – 24 TEN · TEN <1% → 49% +49TEN <1% → 49%+49 pts
- Q40:00Andre Szmyt 32 Yd Field GoalCLE 27 – 24 TEN · CLE 52% → 100% +48CLE 52% → 100%+48 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Browns 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -2.5
- ML CLE -130 / TEN +110
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -5
- CLE 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 66.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -123
- TEN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 19.5 – 17.0 TEN
- Posted spread, posted total 36.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1314 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +13 | +1 | CLE: Deshaun Watson · TEN: Cam Ward (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +120 Elo | CLE 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEN 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 61.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3217.7 | Points scored | 14.031st of 32 |
| 6th of 3220.3 | Points allowed | 21.513th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−2.7 | Margin | −7.529th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.53 | Yards per play | 4.4630th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.03 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2115th of 32 |
| 19th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 0–325th of 32 |
| 13th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 146428th of 32 |
| 18th of 321458 | Elo rating | 131432nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | — | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–1 TEN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.