Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Aaron RodgersPassing19/30, 212 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaylen WarrenRushing18 CAR, 101 YDS
- DK MetcalfReceiving2 REC, 56 YDS
Saints- Tyler ShoughPassing30/38, 278 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Tyler ShoughRushing3 CAR, 7 YDS
- Alvin KamaraReceiving7 REC, 57 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q30:14Chris Boswell 39 Yd Field Goal16–10
- Q20:00Chris Boswell 47 Yd Field Goal13–10
- Q21:45Devaughn Vele 1 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Daniel Carlson Kick)10–10
- Q26:45Darnell Washington 4 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)10–3
- Q210:17Daniel Carlson 38 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q110:51Chris Boswell 28 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:17Daniel Carlson 38 Yd Field GoalPIT 3 – 3 NO · NO 33% → 42% +9NO 33% → 42%+9 pts
- Q26:45Darnell Washington 4 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 10 – 3 NO · PIT 58% → 77% +20PIT 58% → 77%+20 pts
- Q21:45Devaughn Vele 1 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Daniel Carlson Kick)PIT 10 – 10 NO · NO 22% → 43% +21NO 22% → 43%+21 pts
- Q20:00Chris Boswell 47 Yd Field GoalPIT 13 – 10 NO · PIT 57% → 67% +10PIT 57% → 67%+10 pts
- Q30:14Chris Boswell 39 Yd Field GoalPIT 16 – 10 NO · PIT 69% → 81% +12PIT 69% → 81%+12 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Steelers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- PIT -3
- ML PIT -162 / NO +136
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -4
- PIT 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 64.1%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -148
- NO +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 23.8 – 20.8 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | +11 | −3 | PIT: Aaron Rodgers · NO: Tyler Shough (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +101 Elo | PIT 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 62.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 59.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3222.8 | Points scored | 25.311th of 32 |
| 12th of 3221.3 | Points allowed | 29.731st of 32 |
| 13th of 32+1.5 | Margin | −4.326th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.01 | Yards per play | 4.8023rd of 32 |
| 8th of 324.99 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8427th of 32 |
| 27th of 321476 | Opponent Elo | 151010th of 32 |
| 14th of 321530 | Elo rating | 144321st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.