Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
PIT went from 65% to 63% over 12 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 24 at 4:25 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Deshaun WatsonPassing27/39, 324 YDS
- Quinshon JudkinsRushing11 CAR, 25 YDS
- Harold Fannin Jr.Receiving10 REC, 154 YDS
Steelers- Aaron RodgersPassing13/25, 172 YDS, 1 INT
- Jaylen WarrenRushing17 CAR, 143 YDS, 1 TD
- Darnell WashingtonReceiving3 REC, 94 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q39:39Jaylen Warren 1 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)6–27
- Q20:01Pat Freiermuth 1 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)6–20
- Q20:45Andre Szmyt 49 Yd Field Goal6–13
- Q23:27Chris Boswell 37 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q28:43Andre Szmyt 32 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q214:05Chris Boswell 20 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q17:57Rico Dowdle 9 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:57Rico Dowdle 9 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)CLE 0 – 7 PIT · PIT 62% → 78% +16PIT 62% → 78%+16 pts
- Q28:43Andre Szmyt 32 Yd Field GoalCLE 3 – 10 PIT · CLE 15% → 21% +6CLE 15% → 21%+6 pts
- Q23:27Chris Boswell 37 Yd Field GoalCLE 3 – 13 PIT · PIT 80% → 86% +6PIT 80% → 86%+6 pts
- Q20:45Andre Szmyt 49 Yd Field GoalCLE 6 – 13 PIT · CLE 13% → 20% +6CLE 13% → 20%+6 pts
- Q20:01Pat Freiermuth 1 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)CLE 6 – 20 PIT · PIT 81% → 93% +13PIT 81% → 93%+13 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Steelers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- PIT -3.5
- ML CLE +160 / PIT -192
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -4.5
- PIT 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 65.0%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -172
- CLE +172 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 17.5 – 21.0 PIT
- Posted spread, posted total 38.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +17 | +10 | CLE: Deshaun Watson · PIT: Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +107 Elo | PIT 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 66.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 63.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3219.0 | Points scored | 21.922nd of 32 |
| 12th of 3220.9 | Points allowed | 19.75th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−1.9 | Margin | +2.111th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324.99 | Yards per play | 5.0722nd of 32 |
| 11th of 325.05 | Yards allowed per play | 4.987th of 32 |
| 12th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
| 28th of 321466 | Opponent Elo | 148922nd of 32 |
| 20th of 321469 | Elo rating | 154713th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–2 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 4–1 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–3 PIT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.