Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the Saints favored by 2.5, and the forecast follows it (Saints 55%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings like the Saints more, at 59%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Saints have home field and the Saints rate higher (1434 to 1402 Elo).
- It's moved toward the Saints since we first logged it, from 47% to 55%.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Panthers
Now 18%
27%
with a win
12%
with a loss
This game is worth 16 points of playoff chance to them.
Saints
Now 25%
32%
with a win
15%
with a loss
This game is worth 18 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
NO went from 47% to 55% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, November 7 at 9:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Saints 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- NO -2.5
- ML CAR +110 / NO -130
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -2.5
- NO 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- NO: Elo 59.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NO -120
- CAR +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- CAR 23.0 – 25.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1402 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | 0 | CAR: Bryce Young · NO: Tyler Shough (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | NO +64 Elo | NO 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 57.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 54.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 3224.9 | Points scored | 23.115th of 32 |
| 28th of 3227.4 | Points allowed | 27.027th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−2.5 | Margin | −3.922nd of 32 |
| 12th of 325.49 | Yards per play | 4.9124th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.30 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6926th of 32 |
| 14th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 1–319th of 32 |
| 5th of 321534 | Opponent Elo | 150512th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321402 | Elo rating | 143421st of 32 |
| 20th of 32−1.0 | Offense, adjusted | −1.325th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−2.1 | Defense, adjusted | −1.223rd of 32 |
Player props
Projected from each player's share of his team's targets, carries and passes, next to DraftKings lines. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 17,384 graded NFL lines (log loss 0.689 vs our model's 0.721). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −1.9% a bet over 4,421 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler ShoughNO | QB · 36 attempts | 273.7 | 213.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Bryce YoungCAR | QB · 34 attempts | 247.2 | 251.6 | 248.5 | 8/10 games over this line | 49%* | 44% |
* DraftKings lists these lines in ESPN's feed without prices, so each is read as the book's 50/50 point, the chance leans only slightly toward our model, and a parlay can't show what the book would pay for them.
What if…
Pick something that might happen in this game and see how every other line's chance moves if it does.
- Chris Olave (NO) over 6.5 receptions49%59%
- Chris Olave (NO) over 70.5 receiving yards50%60%
- Bryce Young (CAR) over 23.5 completions49%42%
- Bryce Young (CAR) over 36.5 pass attempts49%44%
- Saints win55%51%
- Panthers win45%49%
- Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) over 4.5 receptions51%48%
- Jalen Coker (CAR) over 4.5 receptions49%47%
- Chuba Hubbard (CAR) over 17.5 carries49%47%
- Bryce Young (CAR) over 248.5 passing yards49%48%
His other lines (3)
- Tyler Shough (NO) over 36.5 pass attempts49%82%
- Tyler Shough (NO) over 1.5 passing touchdowns50%57%
- Tyler Shough (NO) over 0.5 interceptions thrown49%50%
What each chance becomes if it happens, from how players' stats and results moved together in 467 past games, the same numbers behind same-game parlays (tested on games the fit never saw). It says how things are linked, not that any of it will happen.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Panthers
25 listedJohn Metchie III WR
ActiveMetchie caught both of his targets for 40 yards Sunday in a loss to the Broncos.
Mitchell Evans TE
ActiveEvans caught both of his two targets for 20 yards during Sunday's 26-21 loss versus the Broncos.
Trevor Etienne RB
ActiveEtienne carried the ball two times for seven yards and returned one punt for nine yards during Carolina'a loss Sunday to the Broncos.
Jaelan Phillips LB
Questionablequestionable
Will Lee III CB
Questionablequestionable
Damien Lewis G
Questionablequestionable
Bobby Okereke LB
Questionablequestionable
Ryan Fitzgerald PK
ActiveFitzgerald missed his only field-goal attempt and went 3-for-3 on extra-point tries during Sunday's 26-21 loss to the Broncos.
Jaycee Horn CB
Injured ReserveHead coach Dave Canales plans to take "the next two days" to discuss Horn (quadriceps), Mike Kaye of ESPN.com reports.
Mike Jackson CB
Injured ReserveHead coach Dave Canales stated the team plans to take "the next two days to discuss" Jackson (groin), Mike Kaye of ESPN.com reports.
Ja'Tavion Sanders TE
ActiveSanders recorded zero targets during Sunday's 26-21 loss to the Broncos.
TeRah Edwards DT
Active
Saints
25 listedBarion Brown WR
ActiveBrown caught his only target for 52 yards during Sunday's 23-22 overtime win versus the Browns. He also lost a fumble on a punt return.
Bryce Lance WR
ActiveLance failed to catch his only target in Sunday's 23-22 overtime win over the Browns.
Travis Etienne Jr. RB
Injured ReserveHead coach Kellen Moore said Monday that the Saints haven't yet determined whether Etienne (hamstring) will return from injured reserve ahead of Sunday's game against the Panthers, Luke Johnson of The New Orleans Times-Picayune reports. "We'll see," Moore said. "He's progressing well. We'll gather some more information and make a decision."
Erik McCoy C
Doubtfuldoubtful
CJ Donaldson RB
Questionablequestionable
Charlie Smyth PK
ActiveThe Saints reverted Smyth to their practice squad Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.
Noah Fant TE
ActiveFant caught one pass for 12 yards on two targets in Sunday's 23-22 overtime win against Cleveland.
Devaughn Vele WR
ActiveVele caught two passes for 17 yards on four targets in Sunday's 23-22 overtime win over the Browns.
Jaylan Ford LB
ActiveMike Reid CB
ActiveMason Murphy OT
ActiveJohn Ridgeway III DT
Active
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 1–5 NO in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.