Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
CAR went from 43% to 42% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 31 at 5:51 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Bo NixPassing25/37, 237 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Jonah ColemanRushing17 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- Pat BryantReceiving4 REC, 56 YDS, 1 TD
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing28/39, 276 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Chuba HubbardRushing16 CAR, 79 YDS
- Darren WallerReceiving8 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:05Tetairoa McMillan 4 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)26–21
- Q45:41Pat Bryant 26 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)26–14
- Q410:17Jonah Coleman 9 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–14
- Q311:30Darren Waller 15 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)13–14
- Q20:04Wil Lutz 48 Yd Field Goal13–7
- Q21:27Tommy Tremble 10 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)10–7
- Q11:23Courtland Sutton 3 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)10–0
- Q111:09Wil Lutz 26 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:23Courtland Sutton 3 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 10 – 0 CAR · DEN 65% → 81% +16DEN 65% → 81%+16 pts
- Q21:27Tommy Tremble 10 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)DEN 10 – 7 CAR · CAR 16% → 34% +19CAR 16% → 34%+19 pts
- Q311:30Darren Waller 15 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)DEN 13 – 14 CAR · CAR 24% → 48% +24CAR 24% → 48%+24 pts
- Q410:17Jonah Coleman 9 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)DEN 19 – 14 CAR · DEN 47% → 80% +33DEN 47% → 80%+33 pts
- Q45:41Pat Bryant 26 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 26 – 14 CAR · DEN 86% → >99% +13DEN 86% → >99%+13 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Broncos 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -2.5
- ML DEN -142 / CAR +120
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -8
- DEN 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +19.7 pts
- DEN: Elo 76.0%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -138
- CAR +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 23.5 – 21.0 CAR
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1646 | 1411 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +7 | +5 | DEN: Bo Nix · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +201 Elo | DEN 76.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 72.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 58.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 3221.5 | Points scored | 25.49th of 32 |
| 11th of 3220.6 | Points allowed | 27.628th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.9 | Margin | −2.120th of 32 |
| 27th of 324.79 | Yards per play | 5.4613th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.11 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3717th of 32 |
| 11th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 1–218th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321542 | Opponent Elo | 151110th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321646 | Elo rating | 141123rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–2 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 4–0 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 1–0 CAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.