New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the Bears favored by 9.5, and the forecast follows it (Bears 80%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings like the Bears more, at 84%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Bears rate higher (1671 to 1434 Elo), the Bears have home field and quarterback changes favor the Bears.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Saints
Now 25%
37%
with a win
22%
with a loss
This game is worth 15 points of playoff chance to them.
Bears
Now 91%
93%
with a win
81%
with a loss
This game is worth 11 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Bears 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -9.5
- ML NO +370 / CHI -485
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -12
- CHI 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- CHI: Elo 84.5%, market 79.6%
- Fair odds
- CHI -400
- NO +400 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- NO 19.5 – 29.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1671 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | 0 | +22 | NO: Tyler Shough · CHI: Caleb Williams (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +294 Elo | CHI 84.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 77.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 83.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 80.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3223.1 | Points scored | 26.87th of 32 |
| 27th of 3227.0 | Points allowed | 20.49th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−3.9 | Margin | +6.36th of 32 |
| 24th of 324.91 | Yards per play | 5.4315th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.69 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9430th of 32 |
| 6th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 4–18th of 32 |
| 12th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149318th of 32 |
| 21st of 321434 | Elo rating | 16712nd of 32 |
| 25th of 32−1.3 | Offense, adjusted | +1.49th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−1.2 | Defense, adjusted | +0.413th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Saints
25 listedBarion Brown WR
ActiveBrown caught his only target for 52 yards during Sunday's 23-22 overtime win versus the Browns. He also lost a fumble on a punt return.
Bryce Lance WR
ActiveLance failed to catch his only target in Sunday's 23-22 overtime win over the Browns.
Travis Etienne Jr. RB
Injured ReserveHead coach Kellen Moore said Monday that the Saints haven't yet determined whether Etienne (hamstring) will return from injured reserve ahead of Sunday's game against the Panthers, Luke Johnson of The New Orleans Times-Picayune reports. "We'll see," Moore said. "He's progressing well. We'll gather some more information and make a decision."
Erik McCoy C
Doubtfuldoubtful
CJ Donaldson RB
Questionablequestionable
Charlie Smyth PK
ActiveThe Saints reverted Smyth to their practice squad Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.
Noah Fant TE
ActiveFant caught one pass for 12 yards on two targets in Sunday's 23-22 overtime win against Cleveland.
Devaughn Vele WR
ActiveVele caught two passes for 17 yards on four targets in Sunday's 23-22 overtime win over the Browns.
Jaylan Ford LB
ActiveMike Reid CB
ActiveMason Murphy OT
ActiveJohn Ridgeway III DT
Active
Bears
25 listedZavion Thomas WR
ActiveThomas hauled in one of his two targets for 13 yards and returned three kicks for 88 yards during Chicago's win versus Tampa Bay on Sunday.
Sam Roush TE
ActiveRoush caught both of his two targets for 23 yards during Sunday's 27-24 win versus the Buccaneers.
Roschon Johnson RB
ActiveJohnson recorded two tackles on special teams during the Bears' 27-24 win over the Buccaneers on Sunday.
Kalif Raymond WR
ActiveRaymond caught four passes for 32 yards on seven targets in Sunday night's 27-24 win over the Bucs.
Cairo Santos PK
ActiveSantos made both of his two field-goal attempts and converted all three of his extra-point tries during Sunday's 27-24 win versus the Buccaneers.
Kyle Monangai RB
Outout
Malik Muhammad II CB
Outout
Jayden Loving DT
ActiveKeyshaun Elliott LB
ActiveColston Loveland TE
ActiveLoveland caught four of six targets for 54 yards in Sunday's 27-24 win over the Buccaneers.
Rome Odunze WR
ActiveOdunze caught four of seven targets for 60 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 27-24 win over the Buccaneers.
D'Andre Swift RB
ActiveSwift rushed 12 times for 31 yards and didn't catch his lone target in Sunday's 27-24 win over the Buccaneers.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 1–1 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.