Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
CHI went from 68% to 70% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 3 at 1:05 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing18/32, 243 YDS, 2 INT
- Bucky IrvingRushing20 CAR, 97 YDS, 2 TD
- Tez JohnsonReceiving2 REC, 76 YDS
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing22/37, 279 YDS, 2 TD, 4 INT
- D'Andre SwiftRushing12 CAR, 31 YDS
- Luther Burden IIIReceiving7 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Cairo Santos 38 Yd Field Goal24–27
- Q42:51Bucky Irving 6 Yd Rush (Baker Mayfield Run for Two-Point Conversion)24–24
- Q411:24Chase McLaughlin 35 Yd Field Goal16–24
- Q33:39Jaylon Johnson 67 Yd Interception Return (Cairo Santos Kick)13–24
- Q311:37Bucky Irving 2 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)13–17
- Q20:00Chase McLaughlin 21 Yd Field Goal6–17
- Q23:02Cairo Santos 25 Yd Field Goal3–17
- Q213:48Chase McLaughlin 27 Yd Field Goal3–14
- Q16:00Luther Burden III 56 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)0–14
- Q19:38Rome Odunze 9 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:38Rome Odunze 9 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)TB 0 – 7 CHI · CHI 69% → 83% +14CHI 69% → 83%+14 pts
- Q311:37Bucky Irving 2 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 13 – 17 CHI · TB 8% → 23% +15TB 8% → 23%+15 pts
- Q33:39Jaylon Johnson 67 Yd Interception Return (Cairo Santos Kick)TB 13 – 24 CHI · CHI 77% → 94% +17CHI 77% → 94%+17 pts
- Q42:51Bucky Irving 6 Yd Rush (Baker Mayfield Run for Two-Point Conversion)TB 24 – 24 CHI · TB <1% → 45% +45TB <1% → 45%+45 pts
- Q40:00Cairo Santos 38 Yd Field GoalTB 24 – 27 CHI · CHI 59% → 100% +41CHI 59% → 100%+41 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Bears 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -6
- ML TB +220 / CHI -270
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -7
- CHI 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- CHI: Elo 73.9%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- CHI -237
- TB +237 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 20.8 – 26.8 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1662 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +22 | +24 | TB: Baker Mayfield · CHI: Caleb Williams (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +181 Elo | CHI 73.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 68.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 72.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 70.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 3222.3 | Points scored | 26.87th of 32 |
| 6th of 3218.9 | Points allowed | 20.08th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+3.4 | Margin | +6.86th of 32 |
| 26th of 324.83 | Yards per play | 5.3915th of 32 |
| 6th of 324.92 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0130th of 32 |
| 6th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 3–19th of 32 |
| 9th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 149517th of 32 |
| 16th of 321519 | Elo rating | 16622nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 1–0 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.