Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
TB went from 51% to 55% over 11 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 24 at 4:25 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Michael Penix Jr.Passing8/24, 125 YDS, 4 INT
- Bijan RobinsonRushing19 CAR, 76 YDS
- Jahan DotsonReceiving2 REC, 95 YDS
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing0/3, 0 YDS
- Bucky IrvingRushing27 CAR, 170 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q33:47Bucky Irving 4 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)0–16
- Q24:04Chase McLaughlin 42 Yd Field Goal0–9
- Q14:02Chase McLaughlin 34 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q17:43Chase McLaughlin 46 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:43Chase McLaughlin 46 Yd Field GoalATL 0 – 3 TB · TB 55% → 63% +8TB 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q14:02Chase McLaughlin 34 Yd Field GoalATL 0 – 6 TB · TB 63% → 70% +8TB 63% → 70%+8 pts
- Q24:04Chase McLaughlin 42 Yd Field GoalATL 0 – 9 TB · TB 73% → 80% +8TB 73% → 80%+8 pts
- Q33:47Bucky Irving 4 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)ATL 0 – 16 TB · TB 86% → 97% +11TB 86% → 97%+11 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Buccaneers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- TB -2.5
- ML ATL +114 / TB -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -2
- TB 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- TB: Elo 56.9%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -124
- ATL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 20.5 – 23.0 TB
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | +24 | ATL: Michael Penix Jr. · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | TB +49 Elo | TB 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 57.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 55.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3224.4 | Points scored | 23.117th of 32 |
| 20th of 3224.7 | Points allowed | 21.614th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +1.612th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.58 | Yards per play | 4.7625th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.18 | Yards allowed per play | 5.008th of 32 |
| 4th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 0–426th of 32 |
| 5th of 321529 | Opponent Elo | 151111th of 32 |
| 17th of 321496 | Elo rating | 149018th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–4 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–2 TB in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.