San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing27/40, 288 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Kaelon BlackRushing12 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- George KittleReceiving8 REC, 88 YDS
Falcons- Michael Penix Jr.Passing25/34, 213 YDS, 3 TD
- Bijan RobinsonRushing20 CAR, 63 YDS
- Drake LondonReceiving7 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:56Nick Folk 31 Yd Field Goal20–29
- Q45:05Kyle Juszczyk 1 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro PAT Failed)20–26
- Q414:55Drake London 21 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Nick Folk Kick)14–26
- Q38:59Kyle Pitts Sr. 5 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Nick Folk Kick)14–19
- Q20:00Nick Folk 33 Yd Field Goal14–12
- Q28:47Nick Muse 1 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Nick Folk PAT Failed)14–9
- Q214:54Kaelon Black 30 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)14–3
- Q17:06Nick Folk 39 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q19:22Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:22Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)SF 7 – 0 ATL · SF 58% → 75% +17SF 58% → 75%+17 pts
- Q214:54Kaelon Black 30 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)SF 14 – 3 ATL · SF 69% → 84% +15SF 69% → 84%+15 pts
- Q28:47Nick Muse 1 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Nick Folk PAT Failed)SF 14 – 9 ATL · ATL 15% → 28% +14ATL 15% → 28%+14 pts
- Q38:59Kyle Pitts Sr. 5 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Nick Folk Kick)SF 14 – 19 ATL · ATL 37% → 64% +27ATL 37% → 64%+27 pts
- Q414:55Drake London 21 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Nick Folk Kick)SF 14 – 26 ATL · ATL 70% → 92% +22ATL 70% → 92%+22 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
49ers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- SF -2.5
- ML SF -148 / ATL +124
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -8
- SF 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +18.3 pts
- SF: Elo 75.5%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -142
- ATL +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 26.0 – 23.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 49.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1670 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +27 | +3 | SF: Brock Purdy · ATL: Michael Penix Jr. (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Injuries | −15 | — | Key absences: Mike Evans |
| Elo ratings | SF +196 Elo | SF 75.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 71.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 58.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3229.5 | Points scored | 23.715th of 32 |
| 4th of 3218.3 | Points allowed | 25.523rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+11.2 | Margin | −1.821st of 32 |
| 3rd of 326.40 | Yards per play | 5.7410th of 32 |
| 4th of 324.75 | Yards allowed per play | 5.0311th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 0–325th of 32 |
| 20th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 15298th of 32 |
| 1st of 321670 | Elo rating | 144720th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 1–0 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.