Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing29/40, 300 YDS, 2 TD
- Rachaad WhiteRushing7 CAR, 27 YDS
- Chig OkonkwoReceiving7 REC, 69 YDS
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing21/29, 264 YDS, 1 TD
- Christian McCaffreyRushing16 CAR, 64 YDS, 2 TD
- Mike EvansReceiving3 REC, 94 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q49:22Rachaad White 9 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Drew Stevens Kick)17–23
- Q30:15Stefon Diggs 1 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Drew Stevens Kick)10–23
- Q35:56Eddy Pineiro 33 Yd Field Goal3–23
- Q20:13Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)3–20
- Q14:09Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro PAT Failed)3–13
- Q18:48Drew Stevens 51 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q110:53George Kittle 11 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:53George Kittle 11 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)WSH 0 – 7 SF · SF 77% → 89% +11SF 77% → 89%+11 pts
- Q18:48Drew Stevens 51 Yd Field GoalWSH 3 – 7 SF · WSH 12% → 16% +4WSH 12% → 16%+4 pts
- Q14:09Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro PAT Failed)WSH 3 – 13 SF · SF 84% → 92% +8SF 84% → 92%+8 pts
- Q20:13Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)WSH 3 – 20 SF · SF 92% → 98% +6SF 92% → 98%+6 pts
- Q49:22Rachaad White 9 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Drew Stevens Kick)WSH 17 – 23 SF · WSH <1% → 10% +9WSH <1% → 10%+9 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
49ers 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- SF -7.5
- ML WSH +320 / SF -410
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -13
- SF 87%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.8 pts
- SF: Elo 86.9%, market 77.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -355
- WSH +355 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 22.0 – 29.5 SF
- Posted spread, posted total 51.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1399 | 1677 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Injuries | −15 | — | Key absences: Jacory Croskey-Merritt |
| Elo ratings | SF +329 Elo | SF 86.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 86.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 86.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 78.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 3223.0 | Points scored | 30.83rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3229.8 | Points allowed | 18.64th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−6.8 | Margin | +12.21st of 32 |
| 18th of 325.12 | Yards per play | 6.433rd of 32 |
| 21st of 325.46 | Yards allowed per play | 4.674th of 32 |
| 29th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
| 27th of 321468 | Opponent Elo | 15159th of 32 |
| 25th of 321400 | Elo rating | 16631st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–1 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–1 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 SF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.