Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
SEA went from 61% to 60% over 10 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 3:19 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing24/34, 247 YDS, 1 TD
- D'Andre SwiftRushing27 CAR, 69 YDS, 3 TD
- Rome OdunzeReceiving4 REC, 87 YDS
Seahawks- Sam DarnoldPassing17/34, 188 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Jadarian PriceRushing10 CAR, 29 YDS
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving6 REC, 118 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:41D'Andre Swift 5 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)34–17
- Q48:28D'Andre Swift 5 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)27–17
- Q411:46Cooper Kupp 7 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Sam Darnold Pass to Tory Horton for Two-Point Conversion)20–17
- Q35:38D'Andre Swift 1 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)20–9
- Q20:30Jaxon Smith-Njigba 43 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers PAT Failed)13–9
- Q21:08Cairo Santos 38 Yd Field Goal13–3
- Q26:07Cairo Santos 44 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q212:50Jason Myers 27 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q15:25Luther Burden III 1 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:25Luther Burden III 1 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 7 – 0 SEA · CHI 41% → 60% +19CHI 41% → 60%+19 pts
- Q20:30Jaxon Smith-Njigba 43 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers PAT Failed)CHI 13 – 9 SEA · SEA 24% → 43% +19SEA 24% → 43%+19 pts
- Q35:38D'Andre Swift 1 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 20 – 9 SEA · CHI 61% → 85% +24CHI 61% → 85%+24 pts
- Q411:46Cooper Kupp 7 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Sam Darnold Pass to Tory Horton for Two-Point Conversion)CHI 20 – 17 SEA · SEA 7% → 38% +30SEA 7% → 38%+30 pts
- Q48:28D'Andre Swift 5 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 27 – 17 SEA · CHI 66% → 94% +29CHI 66% → 94%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -3
- ML CHI +140 / SEA -166
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -3.5
- SEA 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 62.9%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -151
- CHI +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 21.8 – 24.8 SEA
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1615 | 1682 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +25 | +13 | CHI: Caleb Williams · SEA: Sam Darnold (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +91 Elo | SEA 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 63.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 60.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3225.7 | Points scored | 24.011th of 32 |
| 9th of 3220.4 | Points allowed | 17.93rd of 32 |
| 7th of 32+5.3 | Margin | +6.16th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.42 | Yards per play | 5.3616th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326.25 | Yards allowed per play | 3.991st of 32 |
| 5th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 3–111th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321482 | Opponent Elo | 15149th of 32 |
| 7th of 321615 | Elo rating | 16822nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–2 | 2–3–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 2–3–2 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 2–3–2 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | — |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–1 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.