New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Bengals at 76%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Bengals rate higher (1574 to 1434 Elo), the Bengals have home field and quarterback changes favor the Bengals.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Saints
Now 25%
38%
with a win
21%
with a loss
This game is worth 17 points of playoff chance to them.
Bengals
Now 94%
96%
with a win
89%
with a loss
This game is worth 7 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Bengals 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -8
- CIN 76%
- Fair odds
- CIN -314
- NO +314 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- NO 20.6 – 28.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1574 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | 0 | +26 | NO: Tyler Shough · CIN: Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +201 Elo | CIN 76.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 75.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 75.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3223.1 | Points scored | 30.02nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3227.0 | Points allowed | 21.914th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−3.9 | Margin | +8.14th of 32 |
| 24th of 324.91 | Yards per play | 6.083rd of 32 |
| 26th of 325.69 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7127th of 32 |
| 6th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 2–114th of 32 |
| 12th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 148521st of 32 |
| 21st of 321434 | Elo rating | 157411th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−1.3 | Offense, adjusted | +2.93rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−1.2 | Defense, adjusted | −1.724th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Saints
25 listedBarion Brown WR
ActiveBrown caught his only target for 52 yards during Sunday's 23-22 overtime win versus the Browns. He also lost a fumble on a punt return.
Bryce Lance WR
ActiveLance failed to catch his only target in Sunday's 23-22 overtime win over the Browns.
Travis Etienne Jr. RB
Injured ReserveHead coach Kellen Moore said Monday that the Saints haven't yet determined whether Etienne (hamstring) will return from injured reserve ahead of Sunday's game against the Panthers, Luke Johnson of The New Orleans Times-Picayune reports. "We'll see," Moore said. "He's progressing well. We'll gather some more information and make a decision."
Erik McCoy C
Doubtfuldoubtful
CJ Donaldson RB
Questionablequestionable
Charlie Smyth PK
ActiveThe Saints reverted Smyth to their practice squad Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.
Noah Fant TE
ActiveFant caught one pass for 12 yards on two targets in Sunday's 23-22 overtime win against Cleveland.
Devaughn Vele WR
ActiveVele caught two passes for 17 yards on four targets in Sunday's 23-22 overtime win over the Browns.
Jaylan Ford LB
ActiveMike Reid CB
ActiveMason Murphy OT
ActiveJohn Ridgeway III DT
Active
Bengals
25 listedDohnte Meyers WR
ActiveMeyers caught two passes for 47 yards on three targets in Sunday's 34-17 win over the Falcons.
Kyle Dugger S
Questionablequestionable
Samaje Perine RB
ActivePerine rushed 11 times for 43 yards during Sunday's 34-17 win over the Falcons.
Myles Hinton OT
ActiveConnor Lew C
ActiveLandon Robinson DT
ActiveAndrei Iosivas WR
Injured ReserveHead coach Zac Taylor said Monday that Iosivas is doing well in his recovery from left thumb surgery, and the Bengals will "continue to work through this week" to determine when the receiver might return from injured reserve, Laurel Pfahler of the Dayton Daily News reports.
Evan McPherson PK
ActiveMcPherson went 2-for-2 on field-goal attempts while making all four of his extra-point tries during Sunday's 34-17 win over the Falcons.
Mike Gesicki TE
ActiveGesicki caught both of his targets for 11 yards during Sunday's 34-17 win versus Atlanta.
Chase Brown RB
ActiveBrown carried the ball nine times for 57 yards and caught all three of his targets for 18 yards in Sunday's 34-17 win over the Falcons.
Tee Higgins WR
ActiveHiggins caught five of six targets for 32 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 34-17 win over Atlanta.
Ja'Marr Chase WR
ActiveChase caught 10 of 12 targets for 155 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 34-17 win over the Falcons.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.