Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
CIN went from 82% to 84% over 11 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 24 at 4:25 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Cam WardPassing26/40, 304 YDS, 2 TD
- Tony PollardRushing21 CAR, 117 YDS, 2 TD
- Gunnar HelmReceiving5 REC, 76 YDS
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing38/48, 462 YDS, 5 TD, 3 INT
- Chase BrownRushing12 CAR, 55 YDS
- Tee HigginsReceiving10 REC, 155 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- OT7:00Joe Burrow 9 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick)36–43
- Q41:17Tee Higgins 18 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)36–36
- Q43:46Wan'Dale Robinson 15 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Cam Ward Pass to Gunnar Helm for Two-Point Conversion)36–29
- Q47:13Mike Gesicki 25 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–29
- Q411:29Chimere Dike 11 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)28–23
- Q30:46Demetrius Knight Jr. Safety21–23
- Q37:47Tony Pollard 1 Yd Rush (Cam Ward Run for Two-Point Conversion)21–21
- Q312:25Tee Higgins 17 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)13–21
- Q20:20Jack Endries 1 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)13–14
- Q213:20Ja'Marr Chase 30 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)13–7
- Q12:14Joey Slye 29 Yd Field Goal13–0
- Q17:55Tony Pollard 40 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)10–0
- Q110:52Joey Slye 46 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:29Chimere Dike 11 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)TEN 28 – 23 CIN · TEN 24% → 61% +38TEN 24% → 61%+38 pts
- Q47:13Mike Gesicki 25 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)TEN 28 – 29 CIN · CIN 29% → 70% +41CIN 29% → 70%+41 pts
- Q43:46Wan'Dale Robinson 15 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Cam Ward Pass to Gunnar Helm for Two-Point Conversion)TEN 36 – 29 CIN · TEN 31% → 93% +63TEN 31% → 93%+63 pts
- Q41:17Tee Higgins 18 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)TEN 36 – 36 CIN · CIN <1% → 56% +56CIN <1% → 56%+56 pts
- OT7:00Joe Burrow 9 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick)TEN 36 – 43 CIN · CIN 63% → 95% +32CIN 63% → 95%+32 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Bengals 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- CIN -12.5
- ML TEN +490 / CIN -675
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -12.5
- CIN 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- CIN: Elo 86.1%, market 83.7%
- Fair odds
- CIN -521
- TEN +521 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 17.0 – 29.5 CIN
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1303 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +1 | +26 | TEN: Cam Ward · CIN: Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Injuries | −15 | — | Key absences: Carnell Tate |
| Elo ratings | CIN +316 Elo | CIN 86.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 84.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 85.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 83.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3215.4 | Points scored | 27.24th of 32 |
| 15th of 3222.3 | Points allowed | 20.38th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−6.9 | Margin | +6.84th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.58 | Yards per play | 5.719th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.53 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5923rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 321–2 | Road vs home | 1–116th of 32 |
| 30th of 321452 | Opponent Elo | 15179th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321303 | Elo rating | 154314th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEN |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–4 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEN 1–1 CIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.