Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
ATL went from 40% to 39% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 31 at 11:25 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing24/29, 271 YDS, 3 TD
- Chase BrownRushing9 CAR, 57 YDS
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving10 REC, 155 YDS, 1 TD
Falcons- Michael Penix Jr.Passing20/31, 162 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Bijan RobinsonRushing19 CAR, 100 YDS, 1 TD
- Drake LondonReceiving5 REC, 68 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:36Evan McPherson 43 Yd Field Goal34–17
- Q32:05Tee Higgins 8 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)31–17
- Q36:18Bijan Robinson 1 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)24–17
- Q20:24Evan McPherson 57 Yd Field Goal24–10
- Q24:03Tee Higgins 4 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)21–10
- Q212:56Joe Burrow 1 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick)14–10
- Q12:56Nick Folk 31 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q18:49Ja'Marr Chase 47 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)7–7
- Q111:12Charlie Woerner 1 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Nick Folk Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:12Charlie Woerner 1 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Nick Folk Kick)CIN 0 – 7 ATL · ATL 39% → 57% +18ATL 39% → 57%+18 pts
- Q18:49Ja'Marr Chase 47 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 7 – 7 ATL · CIN 42% → 61% +18CIN 42% → 61%+18 pts
- Q212:56Joe Burrow 1 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 14 – 10 ATL · CIN 51% → 71% +20CIN 51% → 71%+20 pts
- Q24:03Tee Higgins 4 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 21 – 10 ATL · CIN 71% → 87% +16CIN 71% → 87%+16 pts
- Q36:18Bijan Robinson 1 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)CIN 24 – 17 ATL · ATL 5% → 18% +13ATL 5% → 18%+13 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Bengals 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- CIN -3
- ML CIN -175 / ATL +145
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -4.5
- CIN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- CIN: Elo 66.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- CIN -158
- ATL +158 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 27.8 – 24.8 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 52.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | +26 | −5 | CIN: Joe Burrow · ATL: Michael Penix Jr. (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +115 Elo | CIN 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 65.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 61.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3229.4 | Points scored | 21.422nd of 32 |
| 14th of 3222.6 | Points allowed | 23.617th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+6.9 | Margin | −2.321st of 32 |
| 4th of 325.96 | Yards per play | 5.4413th of 32 |
| 25th of 325.70 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2112th of 32 |
| 21st of 321490 | Opponent Elo | 15326th of 32 |
| 12th of 321550 | Elo rating | 146619th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.