Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the Chiefs favored by 14, and the forecast follows it (Chiefs 87%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings land in about the same place, at 85%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Chiefs rate higher (1563 to 1375 Elo), the Cardinals are expected to start Carson Beck instead of Jacoby Brissett and the Chiefs have home field.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Cardinals
Now <1%
<1%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.
Chiefs
Now 87%
89%
with a win
77%
with a loss
This game is worth 13 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Chiefs 87%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- KC -14
- ML ARI +675 / KC -1050
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -12
- KC 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- KC: Elo 85.0%, market 87.6%
- Fair odds
- KC -696
- ARI +696 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- ARI 14.3 – 28.3 KC
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1375 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −90 | −13 | ARI: Carson Beck, usually Jacoby Brissett · KC: Patrick Mahomes (65%) or Justin Fields (35%) (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | KC +301 Elo | KC 85.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 86.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 85.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 87.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3219.8 | Points scored | 25.310th of 32 |
| 31st of 3228.3 | Points allowed | 17.93rd of 32 |
| 30th of 32−8.6 | Margin | +7.45th of 32 |
| 28th of 324.71 | Yards per play | 6.262nd of 32 |
| 24th of 325.63 | Yards allowed per play | 4.884th of 32 |
| 14th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 32 |
| 1st of 321560 | Opponent Elo | 146429th of 32 |
| 26th of 321375 | Elo rating | 156313th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−1.0 | Offense, adjusted | +0.217th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−2.7 | Defense, adjusted | +2.23rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Cardinals
25 listedEvan Hull RB
ActiveHull failed to haul in his lone target during the Cardinals' 17-3 loss to the Seahawks on Sunday.
Simi Fehoko WR
ActiveFehoko was unable to haul in his lone target in Sunday's 17-3 loss to the Seahawks.
Reggie Virgil WR
ActiveVirgil caught one of four targets for 25 yards during Sunday's 17-3 loss to the Seahawks on Sunday.
Elijah Higgins TE
ActiveHiggins caught both of his targets for 11 yards in Sunday's 17-3 loss to the Seahawks.
Devin Duvernay WR
ActiveDuvernay registered two catches for eight yards on two targets, returned three kickoffs for 64 yards and brought back two punts for 21 yards in Sunday's 17-3 loss to the Seahawks.
Michael Wilson WR
Injured ReserveThe Cardinals placed Wilson (neck) on injured reserve Tuesday.
Gardner Minshew II QB
Injured ReserveThe Cardinals placed Minshew (elbow) on injured reserve Tuesday, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports.
Joey Aguilar QB
ActiveThe Cardinals signed Aguilar off the Jaguars' practice squad Tuesday, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com reports.
Jayden Williams OT
Questionablequestionable
Bam Knight RB
Questionablequestionable
Jon Gaines II G
Questionablequestionable
Chad Ryland PK
ActiveRyland made his lone field-goal attempt during Arizona's loss versus the Seahawks on Sunday.
Chiefs
25 listedJalen Royals WR
ActiveRoyals caught both of his targets for 18 yards Sunday in a 35-12 rout of the Jets.
Peter Woods DT
Questionablequestionable
Mansoor Delane CB
Questionablequestionable
Noah Gray TE
ActiveGray caught his only target for 11 yards Sunday in a 35-12 win against the Jets.
Cyrus Allen WR
ActiveAllen failed to catch his only target in Sunday's 35-12 win over the Jets.
Jaylon Moore OT
QuestionableHead coach Andy Reid stated Moore (ankle) is considered "day-to-day," Charles Goldman of AtoZSports.com reports.
Ben VanSumeren FB
ActiveGarrett Nussmeier QB
ActiveDiego Pounds OT
ActiveXavier Worthy WR
QuestionableCoach Andy Reid said Monday that Worthy (hamstring) is considered day-to-day in advance of Sunday's game against the Falcons, Matt McMullen of the Chiefs' official site reports.
Patrick Mahomes QB
QuestionableChiefs coach Andy Reid said Monday that Mahomes (elbow) is considered day-to-day as this Sunday's game against the Falcons approaches, Sam McDowell of The Kansas City Star reports.
Emmett Johnson RB
ActiveJohnson rushed six times for 34 yards and a touchdown and returned one kickoff for 29 yards in the Chiefs' 35-12 win over the Jets on Sunday.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–5 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.