Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
SEA went from 83% to 79% over 9 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 31 at 5:51 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Wed, Nov 4, 11:31 PM ESTSam Darnold out · forecast SEA 78%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Gardner Minshew IIPassing21/30, 166 YDS
- Tyler AllgeierRushing17 CAR, 46 YDS
- Michael WilsonReceiving6 REC, 60 YDS
Seahawks- Drew LockPassing19/28, 175 YDS, 1 TD
- Zach CharbonnetRushing16 CAR, 77 YDS
- Jadarian PriceReceiving4 REC, 54 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q33:50Jason Myers 45 Yd Field Goal3–17
- Q20:15AJ Barner 7 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Jason Myers Kick)3–14
- Q214:23AJ Barner 1 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)3–7
- Q19:23Chad Ryland 28 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:23Chad Ryland 28 Yd Field GoalARI 3 – 0 SEA · ARI 22% → 28% +6ARI 22% → 28%+6 pts
- Q214:23AJ Barner 1 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)ARI 3 – 7 SEA · SEA 69% → 84% +15SEA 69% → 84%+15 pts
- Q20:15AJ Barner 7 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Jason Myers Kick)ARI 3 – 14 SEA · SEA 83% → 94% +11SEA 83% → 94%+11 pts
- Q33:50Jason Myers 45 Yd Field GoalARI 3 – 17 SEA · SEA 95% → 98% +2SEA 95% → 98%+2 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Seahawks 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -8.5
- ML ARI +370 / SEA -485
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -8.5
- SEA 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 76.9%, market 79.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -385
- ARI +385 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 16.0 – 24.5 SEA
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1390 | 1635 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −12 | −84 | ARI: Gardner Minshew II, usually Jacoby Brissett · SEA: Drew Lock, Sam Darnold out (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +209 Elo | SEA 76.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 73.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 76.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 79.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3221.9 | Points scored | 23.113th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3229.8 | Points allowed | 19.97th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−7.9 | Margin | +3.312th of 32 |
| 28th of 324.78 | Yards per play | 5.2717th of 32 |
| 27th of 325.73 | Yards allowed per play | 4.171st of 32 |
| 12th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 3–216th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321545 | Opponent Elo | 15296th of 32 |
| 25th of 321390 | Elo rating | 16356th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–4 | 2–4–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 2–4–2 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 2–4–2 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | — |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 0–7 SEA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.