Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
DAL went from 71% to 72% over 13 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 24 at 4:25 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Gardner Minshew IIPassing17/23, 188 YDS, 3 TD
- Tyler AllgeierRushing11 CAR, 147 YDS, 1 TD
- Michael WilsonReceiving8 REC, 111 YDS, 1 TD
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing19/29, 195 YDS, 1 TD
- Javonte WilliamsRushing24 CAR, 56 YDS
- CeeDee LambReceiving7 REC, 58 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT2:53Chad Ryland 42 Yd Field Goal33–30
- Q40:06Michael Wilson 13 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew II (Chad Ryland PAT Failed)30–30
- Q41:09Brandon Aubrey 41 Yd Field Goal24–30
- Q42:11Trey McBride 14 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew II (Chad Ryland Kick)24–27
- Q43:54Brandon Aubrey 35 Yd Field Goal17–27
- Q410:47Tyler Allgeier 5 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew II (Chad Ryland Kick)17–24
- Q414:20Dak Prescott 5 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)10–24
- Q30:57Tyler Allgeier 63 Yd Rush (Chad Ryland Kick)10–17
- Q36:37Brandon Aubrey 31 Yd Field Goal3–17
- Q21:13Chad Ryland 37 Yd Field Goal3–14
- Q25:16Ryan Flournoy 9 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)0–14
- Q12:33James Mitchell 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (Brandon Aubrey Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:33James Mitchell 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (Brandon Aubrey Kick)ARI 0 – 7 DAL · DAL 70% → 85% +15DAL 70% → 85%+15 pts
- Q30:57Tyler Allgeier 63 Yd Rush (Chad Ryland Kick)ARI 10 – 17 DAL · ARI 2% → 12% +10ARI 2% → 12%+10 pts
- Q42:11Trey McBride 14 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew II (Chad Ryland Kick)ARI 24 – 27 DAL · ARI <1% → 14% +14ARI <1% → 14%+14 pts
- Q40:06Michael Wilson 13 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew II (Chad Ryland PAT Failed)ARI 30 – 30 DAL · ARI 0% → 49% +49ARI 0% → 49%+49 pts
- OT2:53Chad Ryland 42 Yd Field GoalARI 33 – 30 DAL · ARI 45% → 77% +32ARI 45% → 77%+32 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Cowboys 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -7
- ML ARI +250 / DAL -310
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -4.5
- DAL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- DAL: Elo 65.6%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- DAL -258
- ARI +258 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 23.8 – 30.8 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 54.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1366 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −7 | +18 | ARI: Jacoby Brissett · DAL: Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +113 Elo | DAL 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 72.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 67.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 72.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3220.3 | Points scored | 27.05th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3229.7 | Points allowed | 25.723rd of 32 |
| 30th of 32−9.4 | Margin | +1.314th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.59 | Yards per play | 5.6310th of 32 |
| 31st of 326.11 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9229th of 32 |
| 12th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 1–116th of 32 |
| 1st of 321560 | Opponent Elo | 148024th of 32 |
| 29th of 321366 | Elo rating | 141823rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–4 | 3–3–1 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 3–3–1 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 1–1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 2–0 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.