Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
PHI went from 35% to 35% over 5 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 24 at 4:25 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing15/27, 212 YDS, 3 TD
- Javonte WilliamsRushing25 CAR, 155 YDS, 1 TD
- CeeDee LambReceiving5 REC, 74 YDS, 2 TD
Eagles- Tanner McKeePassing23/35, 211 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Saquon BarkleyRushing7 CAR, 62 YDS, 1 TD
- Makai LemonReceiving7 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:21Javonte Williams 2 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)38–21
- Q49:10Brandon Aubrey 24 Yd Field Goal31–21
- Q31:30CeeDee Lamb 16 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Dak Prescott Run for Two-Point Conversion)28–21
- Q35:44Makai Lemon 4 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Jake Elliott Kick)20–21
- Q20:00Brandon Aubrey 27 Yd Field Goal20–14
- Q25:37George Pickens 21 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)17–14
- Q213:25Dameon Pierce 5 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)10–14
- Q15:32CeeDee Lamb 9 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)10–7
- Q110:25Saquon Barkley 8 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)3–7
- Q112:30Brandon Aubrey 55 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:32CeeDee Lamb 9 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 10 – 7 PHI · DAL 53% → 71% +18DAL 53% → 71%+18 pts
- Q213:25Dameon Pierce 5 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)DAL 10 – 14 PHI · PHI 29% → 49% +20PHI 29% → 49%+20 pts
- Q25:37George Pickens 21 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 17 – 14 PHI · DAL 49% → 71% +22DAL 49% → 71%+22 pts
- Q35:44Makai Lemon 4 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Jake Elliott Kick)DAL 20 – 21 PHI · PHI 19% → 45% +26PHI 19% → 45%+26 pts
- Q31:30CeeDee Lamb 16 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Dak Prescott Run for Two-Point Conversion)DAL 28 – 21 PHI · DAL 53% → 85% +32DAL 53% → 85%+32 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Cowboys 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -4.5
- ML DAL -218 / PHI +180
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -2
- DAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 57.7%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- DAL -187
- PHI +187 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 24.5 – 20.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1386 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +18 | −122 | DAL: Dak Prescott · PHI: Tanner McKee, usually Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Injuries | — | −20 | Key absences: DeVonta Smith, Saquon Barkley |
| Elo ratings | DAL +54 Elo | DAL 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 71.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 61.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 65.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 3225.2 | Points scored | 17.729th of 32 |
| 25th of 3226.5 | Points allowed | 22.817th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−1.3 | Margin | −5.227th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.49 | Yards per play | 4.3832nd of 32 |
| 30th of 326.04 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3817th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321–2 | Road vs home | 1–218th of 32 |
| 24th of 321486 | Opponent Elo | 148723rd of 32 |
| 27th of 321386 | Elo rating | 145521st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–3–1 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–3–1 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 1–1–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 2–4 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.