New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
PHI went from 46% to 41% over 9 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 31 at 5:51 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Tue, Nov 3, 1:05 PM ESTDeVonta Smith back · forecast PHI 39%
Sat, Nov 7, 9:50 PM ESTDeVonta Smith out, Cam Skattebo out · forecast PHI 41%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- J.J. McCarthyPassing12/19, 127 YDS
- Devin SingletaryRushing21 CAR, 31 YDS
- Darnell MooneyReceiving3 REC, 54 YDS
Eagles- Joe MiltonPassing18/34, 169 YDS
- Joe MiltonRushing9 CAR, 64 YDS
- Makai LemonReceiving6 REC, 61 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:56Jake Elliott 45 Yd Field Goal19–11
- Q44:24Dominic Zvada 49 Yd Field Goal19–8
- Q49:06Dominic Zvada 38 Yd Field Goal16–8
- Q32:25Isaiah Likely 5 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Dominic Zvada Kick)13–8
- Q12:09Saquon Barkley 3 Yd Rush (Joe Milton Run for Two-Point Conversion)6–8
- Q15:31Dominic Zvada 49 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q110:30Dominic Zvada 53 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:30Dominic Zvada 53 Yd Field GoalNYG 3 – 0 PHI · NYG 59% → 66% +7NYG 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q15:31Dominic Zvada 49 Yd Field GoalNYG 6 – 0 PHI · NYG 66% → 73% +7NYG 66% → 73%+7 pts
- Q12:09Saquon Barkley 3 Yd Rush (Joe Milton Run for Two-Point Conversion)NYG 6 – 8 PHI · PHI 27% → 48% +21PHI 27% → 48%+21 pts
- Q32:25Isaiah Likely 5 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Dominic Zvada Kick)NYG 13 – 8 PHI · NYG 46% → 76% +30NYG 46% → 76%+30 pts
- Q49:06Dominic Zvada 38 Yd Field GoalNYG 16 – 8 PHI · NYG 81% → 92% +10NYG 81% → 92%+10 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Giants 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- NYG -3
- ML NYG -155 / PHI +130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYG 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYG -5
- NYG 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.0 pts
- NYG: Elo 67.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYG -144
- PHI +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 20.8 – 17.8 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 38.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −29 | −116 | NYG: J.J. McCarthy, usually Jaxson Dart · PHI: Joe Milton, usually Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Injuries | −12 | −15 | Key absences: DeVonta Smith, Cam Skattebo |
| Elo ratings | NYG +125 Elo | NYG 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYG 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYG 63.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYG 59.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3223.3 | Points scored | 17.130th of 32 |
| 15th of 3223.0 | Points allowed | 25.321st of 32 |
| 17th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −8.130th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.23 | Yards per play | 4.4232nd of 32 |
| 13th of 325.29 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5623rd of 32 |
| 11th of 321–1–1 | Road vs home | 1–321st of 32 |
| 32nd of 321428 | Opponent Elo | 147727th of 32 |
| 18th of 321475 | Elo rating | 140424th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYG |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–2 | 2–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 2–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYG 2–4 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.