Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
WSH went from 64% to 69% over 12 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 3:19 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Tanner McKeePassing23/34, 212 YDS, 1 INT
- Elijah MitchellRushing11 CAR, 34 YDS
- Makai LemonReceiving6 REC, 57 YDS
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing16/29, 217 YDS, 1 TD
- Rachaad WhiteRushing11 CAR, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- Treylon BurksReceiving3 REC, 81 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:52Rachaad White 1 Yd Rush (Austin Ekeler Run for Two-Point Conversion)10–27
- Q43:43Drew Stevens 42 Yd Field Goal10–19
- Q31:33Drew Stevens 25 Yd Field Goal10–16
- Q20:19Drew Stevens 39 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q24:56Stefon Diggs 8 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Drew Stevens Kick)10–10
- Q10:28Drew Stevens 56 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q14:27Saquon Barkley 3 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)10–0
- Q16:10Jake Elliott 40 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:27Saquon Barkley 3 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 10 – 0 WSH · PHI 40% → 59% +19PHI 40% → 59%+19 pts
- Q10:28Drew Stevens 56 Yd Field GoalPHI 10 – 3 WSH · WSH 39% → 47% +8WSH 39% → 47%+8 pts
- Q24:56Stefon Diggs 8 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Drew Stevens Kick)PHI 10 – 10 WSH · WSH 42% → 65% +23WSH 42% → 65%+23 pts
- Q20:19Drew Stevens 39 Yd Field GoalPHI 10 – 13 WSH · WSH 64% → 73% +9WSH 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q31:33Drew Stevens 25 Yd Field GoalPHI 10 – 16 WSH · WSH 73% → 84% +10WSH 73% → 84%+10 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Commanders 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- WSH -6
- ML PHI +210 / WSH -258
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -6.5
- WSH 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- WSH: Elo 71.2%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -225
- PHI +225 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 17.3 – 23.3 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1393 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −114 | +38 | PHI: Tanner McKee, usually Jalen Hurts · WSH: Jayden Daniels (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Injuries | −15 | −15 | Key absences: Terry McLaurin, DeVonta Smith |
| Elo ratings | WSH +157 Elo | WSH 71.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 70.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 69.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3218.1 | Points scored | 22.020th of 32 |
| 20th of 3225.0 | Points allowed | 28.730th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−6.9 | Margin | −6.726th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.50 | Yards per play | 5.1221st of 32 |
| 21st of 325.52 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5823rd of 32 |
| 10th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–0–110th of 32 |
| 28th of 321475 | Opponent Elo | 149617th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321423 | Elo rating | 139325th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–5 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–2 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Sep 13WSH 22 @ PHI 24Picked PHI 67%Hit
- Jan 4WSH 24 @ PHI 17Picked PHI 63%Miss
- Dec 20PHI 29 @ WSH 18Picked PHI 76%Hit
- Jan 26WSH 23 @ PHI 55PlayoffsPicked PHI 71%Hit
- Dec 22PHI 33 @ WSH 36Picked PHI 66%Miss
- Nov 14WSH 18 @ PHI 26Picked PHI 66%Hit
- Oct 29PHI 38 @ WSH 31Picked PHI 66%Hit
- Oct 1WSH 31 @ PHI 34Picked PHI 66%Hit