Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
WSH went from 33% to 33% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 31 at 5:51 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing26/43, 228 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Blake CorumRushing11 CAR, 58 YDS, 1 TD
- Puka NacuaReceiving14 REC, 150 YDS, 1 TD
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing24/35, 274 YDS, 1 TD
- Rachaad WhiteRushing7 CAR, 28 YDS
- Van JeffersonReceiving5 REC, 58 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q412:51Puka Nacua 7 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Brandon McManus Kick)20–13
- Q33:24Drew Stevens 41 Yd Field Goal13–13
- Q311:29Blake Corum 1 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)13–10
- Q20:00Brandon McManus 20 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q214:00Van Jefferson 7 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Drew Stevens Kick)3–10
- Q12:10Brandon McManus 33 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q19:07Drew Stevens 37 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:00Van Jefferson 7 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Drew Stevens Kick)LAR 3 – 10 WSH · WSH 35% → 55% +20WSH 35% → 55%+20 pts
- Q20:00Brandon McManus 20 Yd Field GoalLAR 6 – 10 WSH · LAR 38% → 48% +10LAR 38% → 48%+10 pts
- Q311:29Blake Corum 1 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)LAR 13 – 10 WSH · LAR 47% → 72% +25LAR 47% → 72%+25 pts
- Q33:24Drew Stevens 41 Yd Field GoalLAR 13 – 13 WSH · WSH 28% → 40% +12WSH 28% → 40%+12 pts
- Q412:51Puka Nacua 7 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Brandon McManus Kick)LAR 20 – 13 WSH · LAR 58% → 88% +29LAR 58% → 88%+29 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Rams 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -4.5
- ML LAR -238 / WSH +195
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -4
- LAR 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- LAR: Elo 64.1%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- LAR -205
- WSH +205 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 26.0 – 21.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1584 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +3 | +37 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · WSH: Jayden Daniels (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +101 Elo | LAR 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 66.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 64.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 67.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3224.3 | Points scored | 22.717th of 32 |
| 12th of 3221.0 | Points allowed | 26.025th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+3.3 | Margin | −3.322nd of 32 |
| 8th of 325.79 | Yards per play | 5.2320th of 32 |
| 6th of 324.95 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3314th of 32 |
| 6th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 2–0–110th of 32 |
| 17th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 147429th of 32 |
| 9th of 321584 | Elo rating | 141322nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAR |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAR 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.